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The Pahalgam attack has changed India’s strategic calculus. With Operation Sindoor, the country is moving towards a more assertive posture, consolidating its strategy around an evolving doctrine of Proactive Deterrence underpinned by Calibrated Coercive Capability. A strategic practitioner’s viewpoint is below.
Courtesy: Nayanima Basu
Operation Sindoor has established a “new normal” in India-Pakistan relations. It has also given the world a glimpse into the Narendra Modi government’s future strategy in countering terrorism supported by the Pakistani Army and ISI, and how New Delhi will manage the Kashmir dispute.
Courtesy: The New Indian Express
Studying the reaction of key stakeholders to the India-Pakistan conflict, and how India’s diplomatic machine coped with it, is revealing. Some of the major powers like the U.S., raised the temperature, China expectedly stood by Pakistan while Russia once again proved a dependable friend. Unsurprisingly, South Asia had a consistently neutral stance toward the conflict.
Courtesy: PTI
Operation Sindoor conveyed three messages: First, to Pakistan that it will have to bear the consequences of continuing to support terrorism. Second, to terrorists, that Bharat will inflict the same pain, if not more, than they inflict on Indian citizens. Third, to the world, that Bharat is resolute in responding to terrorism in a “measured, non-escalatory, proportionate, and responsible” manner.
Courtesy: Agence France-Presse
The on-going India-Pakistan tensions have obscured the grave issues Pakistan is facing on its western frontier with Afghanistan. The resurgence of Pashtun nationalism, the long-running Baloch insurgency and the growing resentment over Punjabi dominance is challenging Pakistan’s identity and ideology as protector of Islam. The Taliban under the Emir in Kandahar holds far greater moral authority than any general in Rawalpindi.
Courtesy: Agence France-Presse
India-China relations, undergoing a thaw since October 2024, have been slow to mend. In this scenario it is worth examining what assistance China can give Pakistan in case of military action by India, post Pahalgam. The state of play on the India-China border will also have a major implication for this.
Courtesy: Khyber News
The horrific attack on April 22 on tourists in Kashmir has exposed its stark and violent reality. Kashmir remains tumultuous even after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Before confronting Pakistan, India must first address its internal challenges and deliver on its election promises to achieve enduring progress.
Courtesy: AP
Saudi Arabia has been the new centre for mediation between warring states and their sponsors. It reflects the shifting dynamics in an increasingly multipolar world and the redefinition of power structures. This role has extended to other Gulf states, which have strategically positioned themselves as neutral players, leveraging their strong relations with the great powers, and adopted culturally sensitive to consensus-building.
Courtesy: Atlantic Council
The recent visit of the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and the EU College of Commissioners to India, is a testament to its view of India as a key voice in the Global South and a stabilising force amidst a rapidly changing global dynamic. However, a strong push is required to elevate their transactional relationship into something more meaningful for both parties.
Courtesy: X
The first plurilateral meeting attended by new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was the Quad, a day after assuming office. The meeting reinforced the commitment to the Indo-Pacific but with the change in government, the Quad's trajectory in 2025 remains a question. Part of the answer lies in its past interactions, while the rest depends on how the U.S. and India will approach China.