The arc of revolutions has two acts: rupture - upending the status quo - and the craft of repair. Often, the second is as hard as the first. Today's Pax Fragilis in Gaza is narrow, given the continuing humanitarian crisis, regional reactiveness, limited scope of de-escalation channels, multiple actors' motivations for a permanent ceasefire, and the capabilities of Israel and Palestine to build a pathway with certainty.

Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi will visit India on October 10, marking the first high-level Taliban visit since the group took over Kabul in 2021. Nayanima Basu discusses the purpose of this visit and the importance of engagement with Afghanistan. She explains the roles of China, which seeks business; Pakistan, which pursues political interests; and the U.S., which has a renewed interest in Bagram Air Base and its return to the country it abandoned.

Saudi Arabia has been the new centre for mediation between warring states and their sponsors. It reflects the shifting dynamics in an increasingly multipolar world and the redefinition of power structures. This role has extended to other Gulf states, which have strategically positioned themselves as neutral players, leveraging their strong relations with the great powers, and adopted culturally sensitive to consensus-building.

Donald Trump has re-entered Washington with the backing of a solid political base, a redefined Republican Party, and a more seasoned presence on the international stage, including in the Middle East. Since his last imprint on that region in 2016, 2024 presents significant shifts: alliances redefined, regional power dynamics realigned, trade networks transformed, and urgent security challenges restructured. These changes demand strategic recalibration from all stakeholders.

The Israel-Hezbollah war has become the dominant event in the Middle East. The Israeli army has entered southern Lebanon, and Israel’s air force is targeting selected Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut. The year-long Israel-Hamas war is now a regional conflict, with international actors from the Gulf monarchies to Iran, the U.S., Europe, and the UN, trying to influence the course of events towards a ceasefire.

The Maritime Silk Road, the Belt and Road Initiative, and a sizeable catalogue of agreements with actors from Kabul to Tel-Aviv have been the basis for the growing presence of China spanning the military, diplomatic, economic, and political spheres in the Middle East.

The May 31 ceasefire deal proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden is the best on offer for Hamas and Israel. Hamas has delayed its response to the deal, demanding Israeli withdrawal from Gaza first. This absolutist and maximalist position allows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to conveniently evade his responsibility towards the U.S., a ceasefire deal, and his own people.

Grey zones have blurred the frontiers of conflict and peace worldwide, creating ambiguous wars of complex scenarios and labyrinths that have transformed strategic foresight and the international and national security landscape. In these arenas, multiple options are available, where regional powers' ascertainments converge with the poker game of political, diplomatic, economic, and military interests, as well as the operations of state and non-state actors.

The Oslo Accords’ two-state solution for Palestine-Israel, visualised Gaza and the West Bank as self-governing entities under the Palestinian Authority. That political hope existed in an expanding global economy led by the U.S. and secured by American armies, with the promise of capital flows and investments to develop Palestine on its way to statehood. All this changed in the 2000s, as both Israelis and Palestinians became significant regional actors.

Hamas faces an existential crisis in Gaza now that the Israeli army has captured its military headquarters and operating tunnels in northern Gaza. So far Israel has successfully ignored international pressure to limit its ground operation. In between are the Gazans, caught within an ideology they don’t trust.