On June 3, Claudia Sheinbaum made history by becoming the first woman elected President of Mexico. In terms of foreign policy and carving a geopolitical identity, this marks the beginning of a new stage of Mexican integration into the global agenda. It provides another dimension for international stability, including a revitalized Mexican perspective of the Middle East.
Grey zones have blurred the frontiers of conflict and peace worldwide, creating ambiguous wars of complex scenarios and labyrinths that have transformed strategic foresight and the international and national security landscape. In these arenas, multiple options are available, where regional powers' ascertainments converge with the poker game of political, diplomatic, economic, and military interests, as well as the operations of state and non-state actors.
Just as September 11, 2001 unfolded a new chapter of the world order, as December 17, 2010 awakened the "Arab Spring," so October 7, 2023, has become a date that has unforgettably changed the Middle East's foreign policy and geopolitical dynamics. The existential paradigm of Israel and Palestine has adopted a war axis without turning back but has necessitated reevaluating diplomacy and recalibrating priorities.
The October 7 intrusion of Hamas into Israel has exposed a respectable military institution and one of the most influential intelligence agencies, impacting their image in a contest where prestige is crucial. It weakens the Palestinian Authority internally and abroad, diminishes any peace processes, buries hope of a two-state solution, and marks the beginning of an unprecedented phase of war with repercussions far beyond the region.
In West Asia, nations such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are starting to understand their pivotal geopolitical positioning in world affairs – and are making calibrated and strategic moves to preserve or recover global stability. It’s welcome at a time when more than two dozen conflicts are ongoing, when geopolitical rivals have hardened their positions, and diplomacy has failed to de-escalate in the primary contests.
Mexico has followed Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the U.S.,and sees an opportunity to partner with India. Geopolitically, as a global south country with shared interests in peace, security and sustainable development; regionally, as part of the supply chain and export gateway to the U.S.; strategically as a diplomatic platform with a pragmatic narrative that privileges mutual interests.
The restoration of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia marks the end of a seven-year marathon of indirect confrontations and impasses involving a broad spectrum of actors. It allows both to harvest economic and political benefits. Most importantly, it confirms China’s status as a significant power with influence to unlock broad and complex international agreements.
The Gulf is increasing its diplomatic weightage globally. The maximum acceleration has been by the UAE, which is leveraging its advantages of economy, location, and connectivity to position itself as a key regional and geopolitical facilitator.