The inner fractures of Israel and Palestine are a prologue eclipsed by a new stage of the war.[1] Subsequently, the escalation of the crisis started, there are five fundamental dimensions to examine right away: the asymmetric use of force, the humanitarian status, the implications of third parties, the effects on international stability, and the foresight around possible solutions.
After claiming to have recovered control of the situation, Israel has several military options: a ground assault, the total blockade of Gaza and the limitation to long-range strikes. None of these scenarios show an escape from a humanitarian disaster, which will also provoke a significant involvement of external actors.[2] Military operations in Gaza will compromise the borders of Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, and Syria, motivating these nations to work together to prevent the spread of the conflict. The clearest aftermath is the deterioration of the humanitarian situation. Reports of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) highlight that 423,378 Palestinians have been displaced since the crisis began, without mentioning the constant updates of civil losses in Israel and Palestine.[3] Israel says at least as many have been displaced internally since Oct 7.[4] The humanitarian crisis travels without delay. Egypt and Europe will be the leading destinations for refugees due to the conflict if the situation does not end soon.
Hamas’s resistance capabilities are unknown. On the other hand, the response of actors like Hezbollah will be as disruptive as will any direct intervention from third nations. Should the causalities of Palestinian civilians multiply, the sympathy for Israel could wane. In that case, more statements will be made, and the tension with other countries in the region will intensify, especially with Egypt, Syria, Qatar, and Iran. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), two countries that have demonstrated political dissociation,[5] now have a reason to cooperate to solve the crisis if they want to continue on the road of normalization with Israel and prevent a major humanitarian crisis. In parallel, the escalation is also a test for the Arab League.
After the Camp David Accords of 1978 and the Abraham Accords of 2020, Israel established diplomatic ties with Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the UAE. The Hamas attack on Israel has interrupted these diplomatic dynamics, creating temporary distance. The spiral of violence has an immediate international effect in two primary directions: increasing the talk specific to the conflict and the humanitarian situation[6] and exposing the postures of nations through their foreign policy. Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Algeria, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have supported Palestine—and not necessarily Hamas—and requested the resumption of the peace process and start of negotiations.[7] The UAE has expressed support for the two-state solution in its statement at the UN Security Council but also firmly condemned Hamas’s actions.[8] The war will not fragment the region but will halt open-ended diplomatic talks about the normalization with Israel, encourage movements to support Palestine, and even call to re-establish the 1967 border.
The conflict in Ukraine has shown the substance of unmanned aerial vehicles and cyber operations in modern warfare doctrines, also introduced a new dynamic in which the disclosure of intel findings can no longer be ‘as usual’. The escalation between Israel and Hamas represents a call for evaluating the intelligence services, the reliability of technology, and a new understanding of antiterrorism and counterinsurgency.[9] The available sources do not allow early conclusions but invite analysis to explain the latest developments and upcoming outcomes.
The taciturnity of geopolitics through the lens of the “raison d’état” or the “realpolitik” is usually cracked by human emotions that reveal suppressed identities and expose secrets. For now, emotions will define the future of this conflict, whose past collective failures have arrived at the present through a new crisis. A fresh start for dialogue seems distant, but every step should consider that Israel and Palestine are not distant lands. They are everything to many. A few weeks ago, the Two-State solution and the restoration of the Oslo Process were improbable; now, they seem more remote than ever, but the situation will never be the same. Unprecedented circumstances need unprecedented strategies.
Mauricio D. Aceves is Author in Foreign Affairs Latin America on contemporary Middle East and Central Asia issues.
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References
[1] The Times of Israel, “Outcry after Netanyahu says anti-overhaul protesters joining forces with PLO, Iran”, The Times of Israel, September 18, 2023. https://www.timesofisrael.com/outcry-after-netanyahu-says-anti-overhaul-protesters-joining-forces-with-iran-plo/
Knell, Yolande, “Israel Supreme Court showdown over controversial judicial reform”, BBC News, Jerusalem, September 12, 2018. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-66751706
Ali Sawafta and Nidal al-Mughrabi, “Abbas says Middle East peace only possible when Palestinians get full rights”, Reuters, September 21, 2023. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/abbas-says-middle-east-peace-only-possible-when-palestinians-get-full-rights-2023-09-21/
Hirsch, Maurice, “Can Israel and the Palestinian Authority Continue to Cooperate?”, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, September 19, 2023. https://jcpa.org/article/can-israel-maintain-the-sham-of-an-existing-palestinian-authority/
[2] U.S. Embassy in Egypt, “Joint Statements on Israel: Today, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States of America released the following joint statement following their call”, U.S. Embassy in Egypt, October 9, 2013. https://eg.usembassy.gov/joint-statement-on-israel/
Fulton, Adam, Yang, Maya, and Bayer, Lili, “Israel-Hamas war live: Syria says Aleppo airport hit as Israel prepares ground invasion of Gaza”, October 14, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/oct/14/israel-hamas-war-live-un-says-tens-of-thousands-have-fled-south-in-gaza-israel-strikes-hezbollah-target-in-lebanon-says-idf?page=with:block-652b15c78f081db09484168a
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[3] United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “Hostilities in the Gaza and Israel | Flash Appeal” OCHA, October 12, 2023. , https://ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-and-israel-flash-appeal?_gl=1*stguhd*_ga*MzI0NjM4MjAxLjE2OTcyMjQyNzQ.*_ga_E60ZNX2F68*MTY5NzIyNDI3NC4xLjEuMTY5NzIyNDM3Ni4zNi4wLjA.
[4] Pesach Benson, “Half-Million Israelis Displaced by War,” TPS, October 17, 2023, https://tps.co.il/articles/half-million-israelis-displaced-by-war/.
[5] Dunne, Charles, “The UAE-Saudi Arabia Rivalry Becomes a Rift”, July 6, 2023. https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/the-uae-saudi-arabia-rivalry-becomes-a-rift/
[6] Thomas, Natalie and Russell, Will, “Pro-Palestinian march in London over Gaza draws thousands”, Reuters, October 14, 2023. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestine-supporters-march-london-against-israel-action-gaza-2023-10-14/
[7] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, “#Statement | The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is closely following the developments of the unprecedented situation between a number of Palestinian factions and the Israeli occupation forces, which has resulted in a high level of violence on several fronts there”, October 7, 2023. https://twitter.com/ksamofaen/status/1710629609757086172?s=61&t=RxzgDmrUr0hPI7WB-UUOPA.
Wintour, Patrick, “Arab ministers urge Israel to resume talks on two-state solution”, The Guardian, October 11, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/11/arab-ministers-urge-israel-to-resume-talks-on-two-state-solution.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Egypt, “Egypt warns against serious repercussions of ongoing escalation between Palestinians, Israelis”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Egypt, October 12, 2023. https://www.sis.gov.eg/Story/187173/Egypt-warns-against-serious-repercussions-of-ongoing-escalation-between-Palestinians%2C-Israelis?lang=en-us.
[8] Permanent Mission of the United Arab Emirates to the United Nations, “UAE statement at the UN Security Council meeting on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”, Permanent Mission of the United Arab Emirates to the United Nations, https://uaeun.org/statement/uae-unsc-palestine-22march/.
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[9] Cloud, David, Peled, Anat, and Lieber, Dov, “Hamas Militants Had Detailed Maps of Israeli Towns, Military Bases and Infiltration Routes; Documents found on Hamas militants show scale of planning behind deadly attack”, The Wall Street Journal, October 12, 2023. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-militants-had-detailed-maps-of-israeli-towns-military-bases-and-infiltration-routes-7fa62b05