Local, regional and global dynamics have found new dimensions aligned with political, societal and economic events that are shaping the international order. In 2025, Latin America must address the region’s fragmented priorities through unified efforts, balancing trade, security, and governance in an interconnected geopolitical landscape.
Participation and leadership in international forums will lead to a renovated regional foreign policy. For instance, Brazil took over the BRICS presidency in 2025[1], and the inclusion of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico in the last G20 summit in Río de Janeiro[2] highlighted a vision concerned with sustainable development, climate change and conflict resolution. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum proposed allocating 1% of military spending to the largest reforestation program in history, a clear message to stop sowing wars, to instead sow peace and life, and to express concern for social welfare.[3]
On the other hand, Mexico’s increasingly global trade ties reflect economic interdependence on the existing supply chain,[4] while Ecuador[5] and Perú[6] are resource-driven economies. These intertwine with global inflationary trends, disruptions in the energy market, and supply and productivity reconfigurations created by decisions taken at desks far away from the region. In this diverse landscape, local and regional political and financial affairs increasingly intersect with the interests of global actors. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the different set of priorities can best be addressed by diplomacy, keeping in mind the fragmented geopolitical terrain that includes trade to security and long-term governance planning.
There are several examples from 2024 to show how diplomacy can be successfully used to reflect the changed, more integrated Latin America. The most relevant example is the diplomatic effort of Brazil and Chile regarding the Palestinian question, where a free trade agreement between Brazil and the Palestinian Authority[7] was adopted. Additionally, Mexico and Chile supported a call for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate the probable commission of crimes in Palestine. In the same way, when condemning the invasion of Ukraine, Mexico presented through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a mediation initiative by former President Andres Manuel López Obrador. Mexico and France drafted the resolution on providing humanitarian aid to the civilian population, which had to be sent for adoption to the General Assembly in March 2022. [8] These exertions have significantly increased the region’s presence in conflict resolution and peace-building processes, signalling an increment in this trend in the future.
External factors will affect developments in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025. The financial stability and political redefinition in the U.S, the geopolitical balance in the Pacific, and a new identity for the European Union and European countries individually will have an impact on the Latin perspective and approach to a multipolar world order – especially one where understanding how crucial Asia and the Indo-Pacific are to global geopolitics. The Chinese investment in ports along the Latin American coasts and infrastructure projects is especially noticeable in nations like Peru. Trade between Latin America and Asia has grown significantly in recent decades, with China becoming a major partner in commerce for many countries in the region. For over a decade, China has been Brazil’s largest trading partner and export destination.[9] The Atlantic Council projected that by 2035, trade between Latin America and China would exceed $700 billion and that China may surpass the U.S. as the region’s biggest trading partner.[10] China will remain an essential infrastructure financing source, with two-thirds of the region’s countries part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).[11]
The identity of Latin America, in terms of its belonging to the Pacific, is forgotten, and this is being revived by the need for a connection with Asia and the Indo-Pacific, which represent the regions with significant developments over the last decades and a new centre for global geopolitics. This reality comes with challenges related to the U.S.-China geopolitical competition and opportunities for trade and investments that bond continents. Mexico reflects this delicate balance, managing the new narratives on migration and revision of the free trade agreement, while simultaneously leveraging opportunities offered by near-shoring and trade diversification strategies. The complex global scenarios of today also represent cooperation opportunities through the bilateral or multilateral approach; the coming revision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) in 2026 or the Free Trade Agreement with the European Union and Mexico[12] are examples.
For Latin America, stability in the Pacific is primary. Like the Caribbean, these waters are simultaneously the homeland and a far frontier. Competing national interests, political polarization, and limits of regional mechanisms, such as The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) or Organization of American States (OAS), hinder collaborative responses to global or local issues. However, the number of elections in the region in 2025 will make it possible to reconnect dialogues within multilateral fora, hopefully creating new synergies and finding new balance.
The imminent transition to a new administration in the U.S. will test the region’s institutional continuity and policy consistency. In addition to the recent results of elections in Mexico, the U.S. and Venezuela, the upcoming 2025 general elections in Belize, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Curaçao, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago will define a new political landscape. They may create a different political identity for the American continent. The Canadian federal elections will have a meaningful impact due to its bilateral relations with Mexico and a new alignment with the incoming administration in the U.S. Mexico, as a bridge between North and South, has an opportunity to lead regional responses but must carefully navigate differing priorities.
The nature of geopolitics has not changed over time. Today, it is necessary to build trust and connectivity. Both can be done through diplomacy but also require innovation. Latin America must combine different strategies and cross-cutting elements to cover a broad spectrum of strategies based on developing new capabilities and understanding global trends. Foreign policies must be rethought, and aligned with the Asian and Pacific dynamic, much as the U.S. and lately, Europe, have done. It must be done through agreements and actual ties.
The world order is fragmenting without a clear organizing principle.[13] In 2025, Latin America will stand at a crossroads. Finding its role while managing its own internal and external pressures requires strategic diplomacy, planning, and regional cooperation. Climate change, migration, and demographic pressures will be the epicentre of concern while adjusting foreign policy planning with regard to U.S. policies about sustainable development, energy transition and immigration. As the sun rises on 2025, the oracle of Latin America seems still unclear, and the future yet unwritten.
Mauricio D. Aceves is an advisor for security and border issues at STRATOP Risk Consulting, a Mexican Council on Foreign Relations member, and an analyst on contemporary Middle East and Central Asia issues.
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References
[1] Xinhua, “Brazil takes over BRICS presidency, focusing on Global South cooperation”, Xinhua, January 02, 2025. https://english.news.cn/20250102/c3f3f35962de41f4ab9c02cc4e5de1e2/c.html
[2] Albe, Ignacio, “How Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina approached this year’s G20”, The Atlantic Council, November 19, 2024. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-brazil-mexico-and-argentina-approached-this-years-g20/
[3] Gobierno de México, “En G20, presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum propone destinar 1% del gasto militar a programa de reforestación más grande de la historia”, Presidencia de la República, Gobierno de México, November 18, 2024. https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/prensa/en-g20-presidenta-claudia-sheinbaum-propone-destinar-1-del-gasto-militar-a-programa-de-reforestacion-mas-grande-de-la-historia
[4] Observatorio de Complejidad Económica, “Profile Country Mexico”, OEC, 2024. https://oec.world/es/profile/country/mex
[5] Observatorio de Complejidad Económica, “Profile Country Ecuador”, OEC, 2024. https://oec.world/es/profile/country/ecu%23potential-exports-section
[6] Observatorio de Complejidad Económica, “Profile Country Peru”, OEC, 2024. https://oec.world/es/profile/country/per
[7] Arab News, Reuters, “”, Arab News, Reuters, July 14, 2024. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2546706/world
[8] de la Fuente, Juan Ramón, and Ochoa, Enrique, “Mexico in the U.N. Security Council, 2021-2022: Background and Work Program”, Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores, 2023. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://revistadigital.sre.gob.mx/index.php/rmpe/article/download/2630/2487/2510&ved=2ahUKEwiB-Nqg7d-KAxV6JUQIHUneLE4QFnoECDIQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0PiNRrq5VwUOjC9q2TPTyO
[9] Butts, Dylan, “China is doubling down on Latin America ties to bolster influence and trade, experts say”, CNBC, November 18, 2024. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/19/beijing-is-doubling-down-on-latin-america-outreach-for-influence-and-trade.html#:~:text=Trade%20and%20influence&text=While%20Brazil%20has%20not%20signed,trading%20partner%20in%20Latin%20America.
[10] EXOAP; “Trade between Latin America and (East) Asia”,EXOAP, December, 2023.
[11] Ibid.
[12] European Comission, “EU-Mexico Trade Agreement”, European Comission, 2025. https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/mexico/eu-mexico-agreement_en
[13] Samuel Brannen, “Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like?”, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/four-scenarios-geopolitical-order-2025-2030-what-will-great-power-competition-look