Three Continuities, Three Shifts
India’s new government has to navigate the nation through a world in turmoil. Will its successful foreign policy continue? Or will there have to be shifts and changes to accommodate new realities?
India’s new government has to navigate the nation through a world in turmoil. Will its successful foreign policy continue? Or will there have to be shifts and changes to accommodate new realities?
Over three years of civil war in Myanmar, and there is no end in sight. The country’s stakeholders are unable to de-escalate the conflict or reliably distribute aid to those affected. Friends, including India, must step in — not only to stop the fighting and alleviate the suffering, but to help facilitate a return to normalcy.
China’s world vision has entered its next phase. After the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), come the Global Initiative on Data Security (GIDS) so Chinese tech standards can lead, Global Development Initiative (GDI) so China leads the development dialogue, and Global Security Initiative (GSI), so China’s security is ‘indivisible’ from other countries – all in time for China’s 2049 goal of becoming a global power.
The proximity in the Indo-French relationship is reflected in the countries' increasing cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. An ambitious joint Indo-Pacific roadmap is supported by the Indo-Pacific Oceans’ Initiative and the recently announced Indo-Pacific Triangular Development Cooperation Fund. Both partners must now devise timelines for the implementation of the proposals.
Bhutan’s newly elected People’s Democratic Party is inclined to modernize the bilateral ties with India through investment and commercial ties with cities like Mumbai and Bangalore. This is the moment for New Delhi to view Bhutan with a new, non-linear lens, to deepening ties with a valuable neighbhour.
Maldives’ President Mohammed Muizzu’s desire to have an independent foreign policy has steered it away from India and closer to China. It has added a new dimension to the strategic contestation in the Indian Ocean. Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, shares his insights on the Maldives’ strategic importance in the region, the ‘India Out’ campaign, and the way forward for Indian diplomacy in South Asia.
A tiny nation of half a million people, Maldives has drawn enormous attention from the media, diplomats and informed public since Muizzu’s election last September. The interest has only risen after the recent diplomatic row with India and Muizzu’s increased bonhomie with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The parallel political and security crises in Myanmar and Manipur have led Indian authorities to consider abolishing the Indo-Myanmar Free Movement Regime (FMR). However, without long-term policy efforts to ameliorate the political and economic situation along the border, ending the FMR and fencing the Indo-Myanmar border is unlikely to resolve India’s security problems in the region.
After a year affected by a sustained polycrisis, global geopolitics in 2024 remains a delicate dance between hope and realism. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza cast uncertain shadows, while Taiwan and the South China Sea present potential flashpoints. Indian diplomacy will have to navigate old and new challenges, while promoting India’s expertise in digital technology, as also managing its own upcoming parliamentary elections.
India’s leadership of the G20 has managed to maintain a balanced stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the grouping while also highlighting the need for greater accommodation of emerging powers within the multilateral framework. This experience positions India on the path to becoming a more equitable global rule-maker, fostering collaborations between the Global South and the G20.