The proposed IMEC corridor connecting India to Europe through the Gulf can be transformative, helping to reduce risks to the global movement of goods and data. It’s early days yet, and there are gaps to be filled in terms of missing infrastructure and overcoming a diplomatic rift.

U.S. President Trump is prioritising strategic competition with China and seeking stability with Russia. This approach involves sanctions relief, sidelining Ukraine, and fostering economic ties with Moscow to weaken its reliance on China and reshape global power dynamics. Europe is divided on the outreach to Russia, but the U.S. wants to leverage energy markets and investment opportunities to expand its influence over Moscow.

Since the Ukraine crisis, Russia has been positioning itself strategically in the African continent, strengthening bilateral ties and addressing regional security issues. It is leveraging economic, energy, agriculture and military ties and investments in order to be seen as serious a counterweight to the U.S. and the European Union’s presence in the continent. 

Russia has begun to make its presence felt in the Indo-Pacific as an independent player. A slew of high-level visits has shown Russian intention to engage, following its isolation by the West. The region is ambivalent, but open to listening to multipolar voices.

After a year affected by a sustained polycrisis, global geopolitics in 2024 remains a delicate dance between hope and realism. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza cast uncertain shadows, while Taiwan and the South China Sea present potential flashpoints. Indian diplomacy will have to navigate old and new challenges, while promoting India’s expertise in digital technology, as also managing its own upcoming parliamentary elections.

The 15th BRICS summit is set to take place on August 22-24 in Johannesburg. Against a backdrop of escalating global tensions, the summit's agenda encompasses crucial topics including greater representation of the Global South, reform of MDBs, and geopolitical flashpoints like the Ukraine crisis. The summit's outcomes will extend beyond the grouping and redefine the landscape of international cooperation among emerging economies.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the resurgence of interest in Central Asian as an alternate trade corridor between Europe and Asia. Timely investment in connectivity projects like the Middle Corridor and the INSTC by regional stakeholders, as well as by the EU, China and India, must now build on this interest to create new regional, international, and cross-continental transport corridors.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation's growing importance is seen in the numerous new applicants waiting in line for membership. The 23rd SCO Summit hosted by India on July 4 saw progress in areas like digital transformation and economic cooperation. However, timidity in acting on foundational issues like anti-terrorism reflects the internal contradictions and tensions within member states - a continuing challenge for SCO.

India, as chair of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, hosted the foreign ministers’ meet in Goa last week. What would have been an important and expanding regional grouping has been complicated by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the increased influence of China and an obstructionist Pakistan. Still, India has played its role with an eye on the long term.

In 2022, increased sanctions were imposed on Russia by the U.S., E.U., and their allies. The track record of Western sanctions shows they are quick to be imposed, but slow to be removed. In the current environment, it is reasonable to assume that sanctions on Russia will stay in place for a very long time. India should plan its defence and commercial relations accordingly.