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Sri Lanka’s sovereign debt default in 2022 triggered the worst economic crisis in the country’s post-independence history. By mid-2024, the economy started showing signs of recovery, with a performance higher than other debt-defaulting nations and exceeded IMF expectations. The current stable path, however, is not enough. Sri Lanka needs to shift its economic trajectory from one of debt distress to sustained growth over the next few years.
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The events of August 5 turned Bangladesh from a development model to unstable entity. A variety of players have been stirring trouble in the country, from within and without. Great powers and neighbours, NGOs and the diaspora, Islamist groups and armed forces. All these are entangled in the U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry that Bangladesh seems to be caught in.
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Bangladesh’s economy has been in distress for some time and is not doing as well as assumed. This could have been one of the factors that drove the protests and the subsequent coup.
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Sheikh Hasina’s recent ouster as the Prime Minister has highlighted the deep fissures in Bangladeshi society and pushed the subcontinent into political turbulence. Amb. Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow for Foreign Policy Studies, Gateway House, speaks about the political, economic, and security implications the crisis in Bangladesh has for Indian foreign policy and geopolitics in the neighbourhood and beyond.
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Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's forced resignation on August 5 came amidst prolonged and violent anti-government protests. Lt Gel S L Narasimhan, the Adjunct Distinguished Fellow for China and National Security Studies, Gateway House, analyzes the role of the army and external actors, and the strategic and security implications for India.
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China and India both give great importance to their neighbours – the former through its Friendly Neighbourhood policy, the latter through Neighbourhood First. Although China has been increasing its influence in the region, narratives that say that India is losing out to China lack in-depth analysis. To deduce the future trajectory of China in South Asia, it is important to study both China’s and India’s relations with each of these countries, as also with each other.
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China-centric global supply chains, the backbone of East Asia’s prosperity, are shifting out as tensions over tariffs and strategic contest between the West and China soars. Ganeshan Wignaraja, Professorial Fellow, Economics and Trade, Gateway House, discusses diversifying supply chains, the China plus one strategy, and the role of India as a supply chain magnet for its South Asian neighbours.
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India’s story reads like a Bollywood script – unbelievable and insane to those who fail to decode its success. The most discernable change is internal, as ‘India’ and ‘Bharat’ coexist. India has stopped feeling and thinking poor; it’s right up there with the biggies. Maybe not invited to the high table yet, but has set up its own and invited the rest to the lavish banquet.
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Asian nations like Sri Lanka have seen a rush of Russian and Ukrainian tourists over the last two years. They discover salubrious climes and overstay their visas to start small businesses. It has helped Sri Lanka boost tourism after its 2022 debt default but also created economic problems for locals. It is necessary to identify trade-offs between economic benefits and security threats associated with extended-stay tourism.
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As Pakistan heads to the polls, debt restructuring and economic recovery are on the ballot. The winner of the contest will inherit a weak economy while wielding little authority to implement reform, and will eventually shoulder the blame for the inevitable crisis.