All eyes are on the July 25-26 visit of Prime Minister Modi to Maldives as chief guest for the Maldivian Independence Day celebrations. It’s a remarkable turnaround by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu, who won the 2023 election on an “India Out” campaign. What caused the change? Proximity and geopolitics, says Rajiv Bhatia transformed Maldivian view.

India is strategically expanding its influence across the Indo-Pacific region, positioning itself as a key player in regional affairs. Three elements anchor the effort: development aid, trade and the diaspora. The country now has 20 Free Trade Agreement partners in the Indo-Pacific. The 21.8 million-strong Indian diaspora across the region is a significant source of soft power for India.

The political setback by the ruling coalition in Japan in the July 20 Upper House elections reflects growing frustration with the mainstream political parties. Young people frustrated with high costs have resulted in a fragmentation of Japan’s political landscape, and the rise of the right. The “Trump effect” has found fertile ground in Japan’s political soil.

The Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Washington on 1 July, 2025, underscored the importance of diversified and reliable global supply chains, especially for critical minerals. A Gateway House report shows how to strengthen supply chains for rare earths by creating deep financial markets similar to those that exist for bullion and oil.

A slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the shift, particularly by MNCs, from China to other more competitive locations has opened up business opportunities for latecomers to supply chains in the developing world. Evidence suggests that Southeast Asia and some South Asian countries like India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, could be beneficiaries of the supply chain shift, particularly in labour-intensive segments.

The proposed IMEC corridor connecting India to Europe through the Gulf can be transformative, helping to reduce risks to the global movement of goods and data. It’s early days yet, and there are gaps to be filled in terms of missing infrastructure and overcoming a diplomatic rift.

Geopolitics is increasingly intertwined with the economic destiny of South Asia. Even before the U.S. tariffs were rolled out, growing polycrises had hit the global economy, which has been struggling since the pandemic. South Asia seems a relatively bright spark of regional trade and growth. This paper analyses South Asia’s trade architecture in the backdrop of a sluggish world economy in the 2020s, and makes recommendations for closer regional economic integration.

Over two centuries, the U.S. has amassed vast economic powers across the globe during and after the two World Wars , and sanctions slowly became an effective tool it used to achieve its foreign policy goals, becoming the global emperor of sanctions.

The world is undergoing profound transformations that are not being driven only by the United States, China or Russia. Small and medium-sized States are carving out a legitimate place for themselves in the emerging new order. This second edition of our annual Emerging Middle Powers Report is a reminder that the signs of the times are showing a new momentum for middle powers.

Japan's growing influence in India’s Northeast and Bay of Bengal region is proving to be a gamechanger, with the potential to transform its economic and geopolitical landscape. With cultural ties and strategic investments, states like Assam and Meghalaya hope to enhance development while fostering a mutually beneficial relationship with Japan. Additionally, the latter could help ensure wider regional stability given the tensions with Bangladesh and Myanmar.