The recent visit of Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing to India has re-engaged the two neighbours politically after a six-year gap. Critics and pragmatists had much to say, but the outcome spoke for itself: constructive border management, defence agreements and economic cooperation. And a reminder that India has not forgotten about Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the democracy icon.

Myanmar’s latest political transition offers the illusion of closure, but little clarity. After years of conflict triggered by the 2021 coup, a new administration under Min Aung Hlaing takes charge amid continuing resistance and fragmentation. Is this consolidation or another phase of instability? Reflecting on this question, Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia draws upon his three-decade-long association with Myanmar, including serving as India’s Ambassador from 2002 to 2005.

A new government will be sworn into office in Myanmar in April to run a ‘hybrid democracy’ in which military and civilian representatives will share power. It is Myanmar’s second experiment with this system. The West is rethinking its positioning on Myanmar and now seeking ‘calibrated engagement.’ India, too, should reassess its two-track diplomacy and develop a nuanced policy and an early outreach to the new leaders.

The Myanmar military coup of 1 February 2021 derailed a decade-long experiment in limited democracy, triggering violent resistance, armed conflict, fragmentation, and humanitarian crises. As instability deepens and global attention wanes, Myanmar’s turmoil carries significant implications for India, particularly along the border regions. With China’s growing footprint and ASEAN’s limited mediation, India must carefully navigate its Act East and Indo-Pacific strategies while sustaining people-to-people ties.