After a remarkable recovery from a very deep crisis in 2022, Sri Lanka’s recent budget for 2026 consolidates economic stabilisation and introduces a few markers for further growth. But more needs to be done to embed a growth strategy and transform its economy to avoid further IMF austerity programmes.

India is strategically expanding its influence across the Indo-Pacific region, positioning itself as a key player in regional affairs. Three elements anchor the effort: development aid, trade and the diaspora. The country now has 20 Free Trade Agreement partners in the Indo-Pacific. The 21.8 million-strong Indian diaspora across the region is a significant source of soft power for India.

A slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the shift, particularly by MNCs, from China to other more competitive locations has opened up business opportunities for latecomers to supply chains in the developing world. Evidence suggests that Southeast Asia and some South Asian countries like India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, could be beneficiaries of the supply chain shift, particularly in labour-intensive segments.

Building a robust engagement with India on energy can help offset some of the economic and political crises that most of India’s neighbours are facing. Smaller South Asian neighbours will benefit from cheaper electricity and oil, paving the way for greater regional economic cooperation.

Geopolitics is increasingly intertwined with the economic destiny of South Asia. Even before the U.S. tariffs were rolled out, growing polycrises had hit the global economy, which has been struggling since the pandemic. South Asia seems a relatively bright spark of regional trade and growth. This paper analyses South Asia’s trade architecture in the backdrop of a sluggish world economy in the 2020s, and makes recommendations for closer regional economic integration.

Sri Lanka is playing a balancing act as it manages its ties with India and China. It is heavily dependent on the two rival Asian giants for its economic revitalisation and future growth, but it must be strategic in its approach with both countries as it attempts to manage its foreign debt and ensure project sustainability while maintaining geopolitical neutrality.

The state visit of Sri Lanka’s new President Dissanayake to India, is welcome at many levels. His party’s majority win gives Sri Lanka the strength to undertake the hard reforms necessary to put the island back onto its higher economic status. India’s assistance has helped but there is more to be done to elevate the bilateral. For India which is now in a hostile neighbourhood, Sri Lanka can be a valuable friend.

Sri Lanka's sovereign debt default in April 2022 triggered a paralyzing economic crisis. Steep inflation and widespread financial uncertainty hampered any efforts at recovery. The economy is now showing signs of stabilization. Internally focused government policies, foreign investment, aid from development partners like India and the U.S., and the IMF’s recovery program have set Sri Lanka on the path to recovery and, hopefully, eventual economic success.

A decade after its launch, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has slowed down in South Asia, the result of poorly conceived projects, and irresponsible behavior from borrower and lender alike.

Sri Lanka’s sovereign debt default in 2022 triggered the worst economic crisis in the country’s post-independence history. By mid-2024, the economy started showing signs of recovery, with a performance higher than other debt-defaulting nations and exceeded IMF expectations. The current stable path, however, is not enough. Sri Lanka needs to shift its economic trajectory from one of debt distress to sustained growth over the next few years.