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India’s year-long G20 Presidency completed six months at a time of global economic slowdown and sharpening geopolitical contestation. While India has done well in leveraging the Presidency to articulate its vital goals, the success of the upcoming Delhi Summit will depend on achieving consensus, additionality, and implementability.
Courtesy: Reuters
India’s South Asian neighbours have all seen sharp currency devaluations since early 2022. These are a result of maintaining artificially strong exchange rates, made possible by remittances from migrant workers. However, by postponing the inevitable devaluations, these states have made their economic crises much worse.
Courtesy: Business World
The Sri Lankan economy is showing signs of stabilizing after experiencing the worst contraction in its history in 2022. Decisive policies by President Ranil Wickremasinghe, timely Indian aid, and an IMF Programme have laid the groundwork for a return to growth. India and Sri Lanka must now shift from an aid relationship to one which deepens bilateral trade and investment flows.
Courtesy: Amit Bhandari
The dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade and its status as a fiat currency means it is unlikely to be replaced in the near future. However, the repeated and continued use of sanctions has created the need for a multi-currency trading regime. India must now prepare alternative payment systems and promote the use of the Indian rupee in global trade.
Courtesy: India Shipping News
India’s Northeast is developing and getting close to its goal of being part of the Indian mainstream in connectivity and business – which is also critical for the success of India’s Act East Policy. For both goals, Bangladesh and Japan are invaluable partners and friends. The troika’s collaboration can be a model in the region.
Courtesy: The Week
In 2022, increased sanctions were imposed on Russia by the U.S., E.U., and their allies. The track record of Western sanctions shows they are quick to be imposed, but slow to be removed. In the current environment, it is reasonable to assume that sanctions on Russia will stay in place for a very long time. India should plan its defence and commercial relations accordingly.
Courtesy: Daily Record
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has global strategic implications. Santa Clara County, the home of Silicon Valley is nearly the size of Hong Kong. A meltdown of Silicon Valley would be catastrophic for U.S. leadership in the technology sector, especially when the U.S. and China are engaged in a technology race for supremacy in commercial and military applications.
Courtesy: Deccan Herald
The eighth round of talks for the proposed India-UK free trade agreement is scheduled in New Delhi in March 2023. Both countries stand to make significant gains from a comprehensive agreement covering tariffs, sustainable growth, SMEs, data flows, and intellectual property. This article reviews motives for the India-UK agreement, the economic gains, contentious negotiation issues and win-win solutions.
Courtesy: The Diplomat
The Ukraine crisis transferred global anxiety away from China and onto Russia. But this has not happened in the Indo-Pacific, where the Quad countries have followed a policy of economic disengagement from China, in the backdrop of the COVID pandemic and the regeneration of some economies. How the Quad managed this, is a worthwhile assessment.
Courtesy: Reuters
The International Monetary Fund’s recent warning of a slowing global trade comes as a sign for South Asia to reassess its regional trade within the continent. India, in its year of G20 Presidency and as South Asia’s largest economy, can use its platform to lead the way via dialogue, capacity building, and regulatory policies to encourage open regionalism in Asia.