Courtesy: The Economist
After a year affected by a sustained polycrisis, global geopolitics in 2024 remains a delicate dance between hope and realism. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza cast uncertain shadows, while Taiwan and the South China Sea present potential flashpoints. Indian diplomacy will have to navigate old and new challenges, while promoting India’s expertise in digital technology, as also managing its own upcoming parliamentary elections.
Courtesy: CNBC
A well-supplied oil market, along with new investments in oil exploration and production means that pending a major disaster, India will not have to worry about oil prices in the coming year.
Courtesy: Gateway House
A sweep of democracies across the world are scheduled to hold general elections in 2024, including seven of the 10 most populous countries. India has an interest in several of these: its own national election and those in its immediate neighbourhood; in the G20, of which India is still part of the troika; and in BRICS-plus, where a new global game is afoot.
Courtesy: Swarajya
The inaugural summit of the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI), hosted by India earlier this month, drew special attention given the dramatic strides made in the field in the past year. As it prepares to chair the GPAI in 2024, India can draw on its large workforce, the university system and the technology stack to steer conversations on AI regulation, innovation and deployment towards a balanced and equitable path.
Courtesy: Le Monde
A stabilising economy in Sri Lanka has eased inflationary pressures and foreign exchange liquidity crises in the past year. As economic recovery steps up, Sri Lanka has also sought free trade agreement-led Asian regionalism. However, with presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 2024 and an opposition that wants to renegotiate the IMF agreement, A lasting economic recovery may be derailed by political risks.
Courtesy: Heinrich-Boll-Stiftung
India’s G20 presidency was effective in insulating the forum from geopolitical turbulence and placing the spotlight on the Global South. Although the G20 stands strengthened today due to India’s creative and forward-looking presidency, member nations confronting inter-state contestations, domestic elections and concurrent economic crises in the coming year will have to muster the political will to ensure a sustained commitment to the grouping's promises.
Courtesy: Scroll
From COP to COP, the discussions focus on climate change and its impacts. But none have yet addressed a critical issue: the definition of a “climate refugee” or climate-related forced migration. Some contend that the issue requires a revision in the 1951 Refugee Convention. But with refugee and migrant flows to the borders of Western democracies, the term “refugee” is often re-framed as a concern about preservation of culture and values.
Courtesy: Reuters
The Indian electric vehicle (EV) market is anticipated to witness a remarkable compound annual growth rate of 49% between 2022 and 2030. Amit Bhandari, Senior Fellow, Energy, Connectivity, and Investment, Gateway House, spoke with CUTS International on their 'EV-olution' podcast on the significance of electric mobility in India, challenges of financing the sector and mechanisms for accelerating the adoption of EVs in India.
Courtesy: Gateway House
On December 1, 2023, India will hand over the G20 Presidency to Brazil. The G20 troika will now comprise the three IBSA countries – India, Brazil, South Africa – till November 2025. This trio has an agenda in common and with the G20, such as multilateral reform, energy transitions and digitalisation. IBSA should use its mechanisms and natural solidarity to advance the interests of the Global South.
Courtesy: The Indian Express
Hamas faces an existential crisis in Gaza now that the Israeli army has captured its military headquarters and operating tunnels in northern Gaza. So far Israel has successfully ignored international pressure to limit its ground operation. In between are the Gazans, caught within an ideology they don’t trust.