There is a palpable sensation that the global steering wheel has come loose. The “world in disarray” is no longer a headline—it is a lived reality, as the traditional architecture of the post-1945 order is being actively dismantled. It is being replaced by more fluid, pragmatic, and regional frameworks.
The Korber Stiftung’s Tested, Trusted, Torn? Emerging Middle Powers Report 2026 arrives as a vital flashlight on this landscape, illuminating the shifting postures of five pivotal nations: Brazil, Germany, India, Indonesia, and South Africa. This is not a vacuum born of accidents but of high-stakes friction.
The report documents a world reeling from the 2025 “America First” unilateral tariffs and the ongoing 2026 U.S.-Israel war against Iran—events that have forced middle powers to absorb massive economic shocks as they recognise the United Nations as paralysed.
First, a recession of trust facing the U.S. and its global influence.
The most startling revelation of the 2026 report is the precipitous decline in American prestige. Across the five surveyed powers, an average of 80% of experts now view U.S. influence negatively. This is not a static data point; it is a collapse of momentum. In South Africa, positive views of the U.S. have plummeted by roughly two-thirds, with a staggering 85% now rating Washington’s influence as negative. Germany follows closely at 81%.
The paradox is that the U.S. is seen as “at once essential and damaging”, particularly in Brazil and Germany. While it remains an indispensable security partner, its volatility—manifested in the 2025 tariffs and the formation of the “Board of Peace” as a suspected alternative to the UN—has created a crisis of confidence. As the report says: “Washington is losing favour faster than anticipated.”
Second, non-alignment is of significance beyond the Global South.
For decades, non-alignment was a relic of the Cold War. Today, it has moved into the heart of Europe. In a dramatic shift, 53% of German respondents now support a non-aligned stance, a massive leap from 29% in previous surveys. This is the intellectual and political fallout of the Zeitenwende — the “turning point” in which even established Western powers embrace a model of transactional realism.
This new posture is not about passive neutrality; it is the pursuit of strategic autonomy. Middle powers are increasingly resisting the pressure to choose between the hardening spheres of influence of Washington and Beijing. They are seeking the agency to navigate a multipolar world on their own terms. The report notes: “Non-alignment here is more the seeking of autonomy and less a position of neutrality.”
Third, the rise of “workarounding” and the pivot to regionalism.
As the WTO and UN succumb to gridlock, middle powers are utilising a new playbook: “Workarounding”. This involves interest-led, informal cooperation that bypasses superpower coercion. This is evident in the 2023 digitisation agreement between India and Saudi Arabia and the 2024 nuclear energy cooperation between Czechia and France. Rather than waiting for universal consensus, these nations are retreating to regional “shields”. In Germany, 48% of experts now view European integration as the top foreign policy priority to mitigate shocks from U.S. tariffs and Chinese economic coercion.
This pivot is most pronounced in three strategic sectors: (a) Technology: Small-group cooperation in AI, quantum computing, and space to avoid tech-bloc entrapment. (b) Climate: Pragmatic holding of the line on energy transitions, often despite frictions like the EU’s sustainability framework. And (c) Energy: Direct regional and bilateral deals to secure critical resource chains.
Fourth, India and Brazil are redrawing the bilateral map.
The bilateral preferences in the report will surprise Western readers. Indian experts now rank Russia as their most important partner, ahead of the U.S. In Brazil, China has claimed the top spot. India’s rationale is grounded in cold-eyed pragmatism: while the U.S. is seen as volatile, Russia is perceived as a stable, predictable partner. Perhaps most telling is the intensity of this preference.
In India, despite global condemnation of Moscow, experts view Russia’s influence as only 8% negative. Compare this to the 41% negative rating they give the U.S. However, a significant “connectivity gap” remains. These middle powers share a desire to reshape the order; they do not yet view each other as primary alternatives for trade or capital.
Fifth, the fear of further escalation is real, present, and grave.
Despite their newfound agility, middle powers are bracing for impact. Shared anxiety pervades the report, with 78% to 86% of respondents expecting military conflicts to escalate over the next five years. This highlights the “niche security” paradox: middle powers like Turkey, Qatar, and the UAE are excellent at “keeping the plumbing of the world running”—negotiating hostage releases or managing regional stability—but they cannot stop a flood.
Middle powers lack the hard power to enforce ceasefires in “hot wars” like the 2026 conflict in Iran. As Shashi Tharoor notes in the report: “Middle powers are rarely fast enough to stop a hot war.” They are stabilisers and innovators, but they remain highly vulnerable to the economic and security tremors generated by the major powers.
So, is trust the new strategic asset?
The core takeaway of the 2026 data is that the era of a universal, Western-underwritten order is ending. The world is entering a phase of “provincialising Europe”, where the West is no longer the linchpin but one significant global province among others. In this de-globalising landscape, trust has become a decisive strategic resource. Universal institutions no longer generate strategic confidence.
Therefore, trust must be built through “plurilateral” arrangements—flexible, thematic coalitions that deliver tangible results. These are being actively pursued by the middle powers, which are evolving from being mere bridge-builders – but are stopping short of transforming into the new architects of an international system they hold dear. As the old anchors are lifted, the defining question remains: can the middle powers build a new architecture of trust before the next “hot war” arrives?
Ashish Bharadwaj is Pro Vice Chancellor of WPU Goa and Distinguished Fellow for Law and Education at Gateway House.
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