Courtesy: Gateway House
The global steering wheel has come loose, replaced by more fluid, pragmatic, and regional frameworks. The Emerging Middle Powers Report 2026 illuminates the shifting postures and throws up some surprises: trust in the U.S. is receding, non-alignment is increasing, regionalism is more important, and divergences from the mainstream are clear. Can Middle Powers be more than just bridges to overcome differences?
Courtesy: Gateway House
India’s sovereign AI strategy prioritises chips, compute, data, models, and talent, but overlooks a critical pillar: energy security. As AI-driven electricity demand surges globally and the IndiaAI Mission rapidly expands computing capacity, reliable power is becoming a defining constraint on AI ambitions. Energy security must therefore be recognised as a core pillar of India’s sovereign AI strategy, not merely as supporting infrastructure.
Courtesy: KNN
The UAE’s recent exit from OPEC, and the U.S. push to sell more oil to India are markers of a new order in the oil world with demand security at a premium. As a major oil importer, India must respond to it smartly. It must develop deeper partnerships with both the UAE and U.S., and a new financial ecosystem and benchmarks for the new order.
Courtesy: Gateway House
India is moving from “digital adoption” to “digital swaraj,” a demand for technological self-reliance. The national discourse is shifting from data sovereignty to broader technological sovereignty. India’s goal is a hybrid model where global innovation meets local control and digital services that align with domestic needs. If successful, this model could offer the Global South an alternative to both U.S. private-led and Chinese state-led digital systems.
Courtesy: Gateway House
history, the Palestine issue, the creation of Israel, and strained U.S.-Iran ties. India’s former ambassador to India, Saurabh Kumar, witnessed the hope of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and its collapse. Unfulfilled hopes have led to reignited tensions. The U.S.-Israeli objectives of regime change are still unmet, and Iran’s survival marks a strategic outcome, despite its domestic economic and military strain. Ambassador Kumar discusses Iran and the ongoing crisis in West Asia.
Courtesy: FB / @The Statesman
India’s Vice President C. Radhakrishnan visited Sri Lanka from April 19-20, reaffirming Colombo’s importance in India’s Neighbourhood First Policy and MAHASAGAR vision. While ties remain stable, legacy issues persist: Tamil demands for devolution, illegal fishing disputes, and the stalled Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement. The hope is for these to be resolved within Sri Lanka; till then, the unresolved challenges will continue to test the depth and durability of the bilateral.
Courtesy: Reuters
Outcomes of the Neighbourhood First policy (NFP) are often mixed, shaped by actions on both sides. Recent engagements with Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Nepal suggest an opportune moment to recalibrate NFP, enhance its effectiveness, and bridge perceptions of India as an “elder brother” rather than a “big brother.”
Courtesy: @DrJaishankar/X
South Korea and India have much in common – both are Indo-Pacific players, oil importers and business-oriented economies. Yet, despite the ubiquitious and successful presence of Korean companies in India’s markets, the political relationship has been weak, and underperformed. The recent state visit by South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to India along with a slew of economic and strategic agreements signed, is an effort to recalibrate the relationship.
Courtesy: Gateway House
The West Asian conflict is raising questions about Iran’s performance. Tehran appeared well-prepared, having expanded its low-cost drone and missile capabilities. It also widened the conflict by targeting U.S. bases in the Gulf. The key lesson is that eliminating leadership does not guarantee regime change. The conflict underscores that modern warfare depends not just on battlefield gains, but also on economic resilience, trade leverage, and technological strength.
Courtesy: Gateway House
Following the U.S.–Iran ceasefire and partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, energy flows may resume, but uncertainty persists. Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy, and Amit Bhandari, Senior Fellow on Energy, Investments and Connectivity, Gateway House, note that Iran will retain leverage and will continue influencing prices and supply chains. Natural gas shortages will further disrupt fertiliser production and fuel inflation world-wide.