Courtesy:
At a time of high geo-political tensions, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can play a calming role as it mediates between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. It is enabled by its own diplomacy, moving to strengthen ties with Iran, with the Gulf nations slowly coalescing on issues. For the first time, it is being done without the U.S. as interlocutor.
Courtesy:
Donald Trump has re-entered Washington with the backing of a solid political base, a redefined Republican Party, and a more seasoned presence on the international stage, including in the Middle East. Since his last imprint on that region in 2016, 2024 presents significant shifts: alliances redefined, regional power dynamics realigned, trade networks transformed, and urgent security challenges restructured. These changes demand strategic recalibration from all stakeholders.
Courtesy:
The Israel-Hezbollah war has become the dominant event in the Middle East. The Israeli army has entered southern Lebanon, and Israel’s air force is targeting selected Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut. The year-long Israel-Hamas war is now a regional conflict, with international actors from the Gulf monarchies to Iran, the U.S., Europe, and the UN, trying to influence the course of events towards a ceasefire.
Courtesy:
The 16th BRICS Summit, held in Russia’s Kazan in October, was the first summit of the expanded grouping. With 13 new partner states invited, it revealed how increased membership has the potential to enhance the grouping’s influence. For India, BRICS serves as a bridge between the west, the east, the north and the south, making New Delhi the geopolitical sweet spot.
Courtesy:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has secured his political survival since October 7 by managing his key constituencies – domestic and in the U.S. – and doubling down on his war strategy. Now he is making another calculated risk – to ensure a non-nuclear Iran, and thereby his continued political positioning.
Courtesy:
The Maritime Silk Road, the Belt and Road Initiative, and a sizeable catalogue of agreements with actors from Kabul to Tel-Aviv have been the basis for the growing presence of China spanning the military, diplomatic, economic, and political spheres in the Middle East.
Courtesy:
A potential escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict will affect energy supplies globally. Tempering the conflict will help the U.S. keep petrol prices down before its election, protect the oil and gas export traffic in the Persian Gulf, keep the surreptitious Iran-Malaysia-China oil sales going, and prevent a major headache for India, which imports over 80% of its oil.
Courtesy:
Thousands of Ladakhi Shia men and women in Kargil mourned the death of Iranian President Ebrahimi Raisi on May 21, 2024. Iran’s influence in the region goes back to the 15th century with the arrival of Shia missionaries. Their identity was reinforced by the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The cultural and religious practices of the Iranian-influenced community underscore the local politics in the sensitive border region.
Courtesy:
The May 31 ceasefire deal proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden is the best on offer for Hamas and Israel. Hamas has delayed its response to the deal, demanding Israeli withdrawal from Gaza first. This absolutist and maximalist position allows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to conveniently evade his responsibility towards the U.S., a ceasefire deal, and his own people.
Courtesy:
On June 3, Claudia Sheinbaum made history by becoming the first woman elected President of Mexico. In terms of foreign policy and carving a geopolitical identity, this marks the beginning of a new stage of Mexican integration into the global agenda. It provides another dimension for international stability, including a revitalized Mexican perspective of the Middle East.