BRI sputters in South Asia
A decade after its launch, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has slowed down in South Asia, the result of poorly conceived projects, and irresponsible behavior from borrower and lender alike.
A decade after its launch, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has slowed down in South Asia, the result of poorly conceived projects, and irresponsible behavior from borrower and lender alike.
Pakistan’s peripheral regions have long been treated as colonies to benefit the Punjabi core. This neglect is facing a vigorous pushback, in the form of peaceful protests and violent resistance. The economic crisis has exacerbated tensions in Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan, which remain poor despite abundant natural resources.
The long-delayed Iran-Pakistan pipeline has put Pakistan in yet another bind of its own making. Abandoning the project will expose it to Iranian penalties, while completing it will violate the sanctions imposed by the U.S., its financial benefactor, and its other patron Saudi Arabia which competes with Iran for West Asian leadership.
India and Sri Lanka recently signed six energy agreements, including plans for an oil pipeline from India to Sri Lanka, electricity grid connectivity, and cooperation in renewable energy. Sri Lanka can benefit from India's cost-effective oil sourcing and processing and pay for it in rupees, easing its balance of payments crisis. Its wider use of the Rupee fulfills a long term objective for Indian policymakers.
Sanctions against Russian energy, high cost fuel, heat waves and droughts all at once have raised the price of daily energy use to unprecedented levels and plunged large parts of the world into darkness.
Low global commodity prices, strong FDI inflows, and sustained growth have boosted the Indian economy in the preceding decade. This favourable economic climate, however, was disrupted by the pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine, exposing vulnerabilities in the global economic system. This paper focuses on India’s economic security challenges, particularly in six sectors - Food, Energy, Finance, Data, Space & Undersea Cables and Critical Minerals - and suggests possible courses of action.
The warning signs were visible long before the Ukraine conflict. Years of insufficient investment into oil and gas production resulted in high price, and shortages. With investors keeping away from traditional fuels, the conflict in Ukraine precipitated the inevitable. Energy-dependent India must now insulate its supply chains.
The main objective of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) Energy Club, when Russia formed it, was to market its member states’ substantial oil and natural gas reserves. This map shows some of the important natural gas pipelines, originating from Russia and its neighbouring countries that are not members of the SCO. What can India do to secure supplies from these abundant but currently inaccessible natural gas reserves?
Pakistan’s aspirations for oil and gas prospecting off its Makran coast, south-western Balochistan, are diverging from those of China, which has had a nearly two-decade long presence in Gwadar as an infrastructure provider. To turn Gwadar into the petrochemical hub it desires, Pakistan has sought out other benefactors, changing geopolitical equations in the region
China’s ostensible intentions are to turn Gwadar port into a focal point of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor. But the geography of the region is a major stumbling block in the realisation of these ambitions and raises questions about the project’s underlying motives