Three epoch-making events in 2016 are continuing to have global repercussions. They were: Brexit, China’s rubbishing of the July verdict of the Permanent Court of Arbitration after it rejected its claims on disputed islands in the South China Sea, and Trump’s election. This article, the prologue to a book-in-progress, The Hinge Year – Geopolitical Dislocations and Dispersals, outlines how these events intersect with transformed geoeconomic realities
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The first ever summit of the Indian Ocean Rim Association, to be held in Indonesia in March 2017, will cast light on how India and other like-minded nations can develop oceanic resources sustainably. This event offers scope for India to mould outcomes
India’s gas consumption is lower than the EU’s, but it too, like the EU, relies heavily on imports. With LNG likely to remain a key part of India’s gas supplies in the future, and given recent changes in the global market, what is the future potential of LNG imports for the EU and India? What are the best energy policies for the two regions?
India imports 80% of its oil and 80% of the imports are from vulnerable regions. This high-cost, high-risk approach is not sustainable, and the current low price of oil offers India an opportunity to secure its long-term energy needs by taking three concurrent steps: diversifying supply sources, investing in oil fields, and using financial instruments
Making the climate change transition involves an unprecedented reallocation of capital – and the task is to build the financial architecture that can deliver these flows within deadline. COP-22 has to raise more, cheaper and better quality finance for climate action.
The sheen is coming off China’s state-owned oil companies, which have been hit by the country’s political churning and by their own excesses of buying assets at the peak of the cycle. Now with oil prices low, India has the chance to make well-priced acquisitions without Chinese competition.
India has applied to be a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, but its ambition is being thwarted by China. However, developments in renewable energy mean China’s veto will have little impact on India’s clean energy push.
Relatively low fossil fuel prices have created a favourable climate for the Modi government to secure India’s growing energy needs in a sustainable manner and at fair prices. The government should also encourage locally-built wind and nuclear options to secure India’s long-term needs.
The U.S. and Canada offer an opportunity for India to acquire large scale oil and gas fields in politically stable countries at a low price. A financial investment in energy companies will protect India against a rise in energy prices without raising concerns in host countries.
Once the fourth and final global Nuclear Security Summit is held this week in Washington, D.C., the challenge will primarily be for bureaucrats to continue working and keep leaders engaged on nuclear security. Inertia on this issue, especially when there is growing intelligence on security breaches, could be deadly.