BRI sputters in South Asia
A decade after its launch, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has slowed down in South Asia, the result of poorly conceived projects, and irresponsible behavior from borrower and lender alike.
A decade after its launch, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has slowed down in South Asia, the result of poorly conceived projects, and irresponsible behavior from borrower and lender alike.
Pakistan’s latest economic data tries to paint a cheerful picture, but the economy is still in deep trouble. The main culprit is the ‘managed’ float of the Pakistani rupee, which covers for a multitude of other sins.
The authors convincingly analyse the bewildering diversity, size and scale of the challenges of South Asia in a volume that is a rare treasure for those interested in deciphering the history, ethnic identities, colonial legacy, political economy, environmental risks, and geopolitical dynamics of the region.
Pakistan’s peripheral regions have long been treated as colonies to benefit the Punjabi core. This neglect is facing a vigorous pushback, in the form of peaceful protests and violent resistance. The economic crisis has exacerbated tensions in Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan, which remain poor despite abundant natural resources.
The long-delayed Iran-Pakistan pipeline has put Pakistan in yet another bind of its own making. Abandoning the project will expose it to Iranian penalties, while completing it will violate the sanctions imposed by the U.S., its financial benefactor, and its other patron Saudi Arabia which competes with Iran for West Asian leadership.
Long treated by Pakistan as a colony, Balochistan has seen several high-profile attacks by locals against Chinese interests. The growing unrest in the region reflects Islamabad’s failure to address key development issues. With less than 10% of this year’s federal budget earmarked for development, it appears that the only means of quelling the violence is more repression.
A new book on India-Pakistan relations by former High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria, brings his practitioners’ knowledge to the fraught bilateral. He reiterates that the determining factor is still Pakistan’s quest for identity based on territory and security, and the paranoia of the Pakistani army. The book contains fascinating insights about his predecessors’ suggested solutions and lays out three scenarios for the future.
As Pakistan heads to the polls, debt restructuring and economic recovery are on the ballot. The winner of the contest will inherit a weak economy while wielding little authority to implement reform, and will eventually shoulder the blame for the inevitable crisis.
The more India enjoys cooperative relations with its neighbours, the greater its ability to exert influence in the world. Meanwhile, neighbours looking at India with a reasonable mindset may internalise that cooperating with the world’s fifth largest economy is clearly in their interest.
At the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on October 26, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stressed the importance of maintaining regional stability and enhancing economic cooperation in Central Asia. Achieving its economic and strategic objectives in the SCO will become a challenge for Indian diplomacy next year, when Pakistan takes on the chairmanship of the grouping.