Courtesy: Gateway House
Early indicators of the ongoing war in West Asia point to a conflict trajectory from the rapid decision to the controlled escalation to distributed strike capacity, advanced military integration and mounting regional exposure. Much like Johann Goethe’s Sorcerer’s Apprentice, conflicts initiated based on assumptions of control can acquire a momentum of their own.
Courtesy: Gateway House
Iran has often stood at the crossroads of social and political metamorphosis and regional geopolitical recalibration, from the Islamic Revolution of 1979 to the attrition of the Iran-Iraq War. The current landscape reflects the convergence, once again, of internal pressures and sharper deterrence postures, that the social compact—from a Lockean and Rousseauian perspective—needs a new edition, and that timely diplomacy to prevent escalation is required.
Courtesy: AFP
The arc of revolutions has two acts: rupture - upending the status quo - and the craft of repair. Often, the second is as hard as the first. Today's Pax Fragilis in Gaza is narrow, given the continuing humanitarian crisis, regional reactiveness, limited scope of de-escalation channels, multiple actors' motivations for a permanent ceasefire, and the capabilities of Israel and Palestine to build a pathway with certainty.
Courtesy: Reuters
The Ukraine crisis has sent the EU scrambling for new gas supplies, generating fresh interest in gas pipelines from Central Asia and West Asia via Turkey. Practical difficulties make most of these new projects unviable.
Courtesy: Mint
On February 18, India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). This is a modern trade agreement with its roots in the erstwhile Bombay Presidency’s administration of the nine Emirati kingdoms.
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Three senior U.S. officials visited Asia in July in a well-choreographed diplomatic outreach strategy by the Biden administration. The U.S is willing to prioritise the Indo-Pacific and counter China. Asia cannot afford to be a reticent bystander.
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India’s oil consumption and imports are likely to resume their upward trajectory as the economy opens up, after a temporary drop due to the pandemic. To secure its energy needs, the country should shift course from investing in oil and gas assets of emerging economies to those of developed nations. The oil-rich Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, such as Canada, Norway, and the U.S. can be given special consideration.
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The UN turned 75 this year but instead of grand celebrations, the world witnessed an empty UNGA with world leaders addressing it via video screening because of the pandemic. The UN is under unprecedented stress and being shown up for its inability to tackle the challenges of today like the pandemics, climate change, terrorism or global peace and security. The institution's key governing structures, especially the UN Security Council, are inadequate and demand reform. India must now use gritty resolve to ensure its place in these governing structures.
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The OPEC’s proposed cut in oil production earlier this week may not enable the energy market to recover. Recovery is likely only after COVID-19 is brought under control, but there are ways India can capitalise on the current low oil prices for its own energy security
Courtesy: Flickr
Prince Salman’s accession to the throne after the death of Saudi King Abdullah on 23 January 2015 has been a game changer, both domestically and in West Asian politics. Within days, he sidelined rivals within the House of Saud, and took on Iran with a confrontational policy. But two years later, the results of his new strategy disappoint