Courtesy: The Economist
After a year affected by a sustained polycrisis, global geopolitics in 2024 remains a delicate dance between hope and realism. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza cast uncertain shadows, while Taiwan and the South China Sea present potential flashpoints. Indian diplomacy will have to navigate old and new challenges, while promoting India’s expertise in digital technology, as also managing its own upcoming parliamentary elections.
Courtesy: Scroll
From COP to COP, the discussions focus on climate change and its impacts. But none have yet addressed a critical issue: the definition of a “climate refugee” or climate-related forced migration. Some contend that the issue requires a revision in the 1951 Refugee Convention. But with refugee and migrant flows to the borders of Western democracies, the term “refugee” is often re-framed as a concern about preservation of culture and values.
Courtesy: The Atlantic
By blending Islam, Marxism-Leninism, Arab nationalism, and Third World radicalism during the 1960s, Yasser Arafat succeeded beyond expectations, in impactfully putting the Palestinian question forward for international attention. The spoiler was Hamas, with its jihadi calls for the cause of Palestine and rejection of peace initiatives.
Courtesy: Nikkei Asia
The Israel-Hamas War has shown the devastating impact of disinformation as a strategy of unconventional warfare. This narrative-led approach begins before hostilities start and seeks to set the agenda for leaders, their militaries and geopolitics. Democratic societies like India must prepare for similarly coordinated strategies and build societal resilience to manipulation.
Courtesy: The Jerusalem Post
The October 7 intrusion of Hamas into Israel has exposed a respectable military institution and one of the most influential intelligence agencies, impacting their image in a contest where prestige is crucial. It weakens the Palestinian Authority internally and abroad, diminishes any peace processes, buries hope of a two-state solution, and marks the beginning of an unprecedented phase of war with repercussions far beyond the region.
Courtesy: The Intercept
There are multiple threads running through the Israel-Hamas conflict, and multiple interests. The long-running cast of the Arab and Western worlds are on site, but now so is a newly-assertive Qatar. Two others are potential players: the expanded BRICS grouping and India, which will soon co-invest in the India-Middle East Europe Corridor. Will they be drawn into the West Asian quagmire?
Courtesy: The Independent
The Israel-Hamas conflict can further destabilise a world already weighed down by the Ukraine war and U.S.-China tensions. Escalation is inevitable, unless Europe recovers its traditional mediating role of advocating for ceasefire, dialogue and negotiated solutions, the Axis of Resistance desists, and the BRICS-11 play balancer. For the first time, there are many actors in an arena where the US was accustomed to being a soloist.
Courtesy: ORF
The current crisis between India and Canada over the issue of Khalistani separatism has been festering for decades. Gateway House has been tracking the global Khalistani network and its impact on the India-Canada bilateral since 2018.
Courtesy: World Economic Forum
Digital services trade is a fundamental and growing element of our shared economic future. But policy makers are disrupting cross-border ecosystems by adopting divergent governance approaches. To realise the full potential of an inclusive digital market, it is vital that we embrace new means of regulatory cooperation on cornerstone technologies.
Courtesy:
The disruptive impact of Generative AI models like ChatGPT and Copilot will be felt across information-processing sectors including customer service, research and blue-collar jobs. India must develop a comprehensive national AI strategy that connects stakeholders to provide a roadmap for responsible AI deployment and increase funding for AI research.