The Pahalgam attack has changed India’s strategic calculus. With Operation Sindoor, the country is moving towards a more assertive posture, consolidating its strategy around an evolving doctrine of Proactive Deterrence underpinned by Calibrated Coercive Capability. A strategic practitioner’s viewpoint is below.

Studying the reaction of key stakeholders to the India-Pakistan conflict, and how India’s diplomatic machine coped with it, is revealing. Some of the major powers like the U.S., raised the temperature, China expectedly stood by Pakistan while Russia once again proved a dependable friend. Unsurprisingly, South Asia had a consistently neutral stance toward the conflict.

Over two centuries, the U.S. has amassed vast economic powers across the globe during and after the two World Wars , and sanctions slowly became an effective tool it used to achieve its foreign policy goals, becoming the global emperor of sanctions.

Operation Sindoor conveyed three messages: First, to Pakistan that it will have to bear the consequences of continuing to support terrorism. Second, to terrorists, that Bharat will inflict the same pain, if not more, than they inflict on Indian citizens. Third, to the world, that Bharat is resolute in responding to terrorism in a “measured, non-escalatory, proportionate, and responsible” manner.

The on-going India-Pakistan tensions have obscured the grave issues Pakistan is facing on its western frontier with Afghanistan. The resurgence of Pashtun nationalism, the long-running Baloch insurgency and the growing resentment over Punjabi dominance is challenging Pakistan’s identity and ideology as protector of Islam. The Taliban under the Emir in Kandahar holds far greater moral authority than any general in Rawalpindi.

India-China relations, undergoing a thaw since October 2024, have been slow to mend. In this scenario it is worth examining what assistance China can give Pakistan in case of military action by India, post Pahalgam. The state of play on the India-China border will also have a major implication for this.

The authors convincingly analyse the bewildering diversity, size and scale of the challenges of South Asia in a volume that is a rare treasure for those interested in deciphering the history, ethnic identities, colonial legacy, political economy, environmental risks, and geopolitical dynamics of the region.

The long-delayed Iran-Pakistan pipeline has put Pakistan in yet another bind of its own making. Abandoning the project will expose it to Iranian penalties, while completing it will violate the sanctions imposed by the U.S., its financial benefactor, and its other patron Saudi Arabia which competes with Iran for West Asian leadership.

A new book on India-Pakistan relations by former High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria, brings his practitioners’ knowledge to the fraught bilateral. He reiterates that the determining factor is still Pakistan’s quest for identity based on territory and security, and the paranoia of the Pakistani army. The book contains fascinating insights about his predecessors’ suggested solutions and lays out three scenarios for the future.

The more India enjoys cooperative relations with its neighbours, the greater its ability to exert influence in the world. Meanwhile, neighbours looking at India with a reasonable mindset may internalise that cooperating with the world’s fifth largest economy is clearly in their interest.