Raveena Shivashankar (RS): Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to episode 28 of Unfolding Geopolitics. Today we have a very special guest with us, Nayanima Basu. She is our adjunct fellow, and she brings over two decades of newsroom experience and has worked extensively in journalism.
I would also like to highlight that Nayanima was one of the few female reporters in Bangladesh reporting on the ground, which is truly remarkable. She was also on the ground in Afghanistan during Taliban takeover in August 2021. She is the author of the book The Fall of Kabul.
Today we will be unpacking her insights from her recent reporting in Bangladesh and discussing how the recent elections and the victory of Tarique Rahman could shape Bangladesh’s future. So Nayanima, welcome, and thank you so much for doing this with us. Thank you so much, Raveena.
You visited just a week before the February 12 elections. What was the on-ground mood in Dhaka? Were the people excited? Were they hopeful about the votings after 2024 uprising? Were they disillusioned or unbothered? Any stand-out conversations you had or scenes that captured the public’s mindset and your attention particularly?
Nayanima Basu (NB): I was there in August 2024 also.
That’s when the student uprising had happened and we saw how the Awami League government at that point of time was thrown out of power. And of course, their Prime Minister, Shekhar Sinha, she escaped and she came to India. Now, keeping all that aside, at that time, of course, the sentiment was hugely anti-India, which continues to be there, although that has become a lot of, you know, it has entrenched a lot.
But then, yes, this time the mood was quite upbeat. People were looking at having the elections, you know, going for voting, and they knew that there will be some kind of change or transformation happening. They were looking at creating, you know, history, so to say.
And we’ve heard so many times at that point of time from the interim government that was there in power that this is going to be a very new Bangladesh, a Bangladesh 2.0. So all that was there. However, having said that, yes, there was a lot of palpable tension as well because people were thinking what if there will be a kind of, you know, violence and all of that. Because we did see in July 2024 onwards, and even much before there were political violence going on, how people were killed, students were killed, innocent lives were lost.
So, of course, there were tensions. However, this all turned out to be all good. The turnover was quite nice, the turnout of the voters.
And of course, the fact that people now are looking forward towards, you know, I would say stability more than anything else. But then, of course, it remains to be seen how the new BNP government steers this country forward. So you talked about student uprising, and that was a major, major role they played last year.
RS: How are the student organisation and youth groups faring now? Are they satisfied with the outcomes in elections? And do you sense any lingering frustration that could spark future protests?
NB: That’s an interesting question. I would say, if one studies Bangladesh deeply, then one would know that the student political groups out there, they are extremely powerful and influential. And we saw what they can do in 2024.
And that kind of revolutionary streak does remain. And the fact that students there have now gotten, you know, especially the Jamaat-e-Islami backed student groups, political groups are now there in some of the key universities out there, from Dhaka University to Rajshahi and others. So, of course, I mean, that kind of revolutionary thought process discourse is very much there.
And they are also going to make the government accountable for their demands, whatever they would need. Having said that, they are also aware that a lot of turmoil has already happened. So they would now look forward to having this government bringing some kind of stability.
And also, of course, taking this country towards development, there has to be jobs creation happening. So all that is there. But then the students are, it’s not that they have given up, you know, on protesting or things like that.
Let us not forget the Osman Hadi episode that had happened. They would want that, you know, chapter to be also closed. So all that is there.
Like any other country, you have your internal tensions going on. So, yes, the students remain powerful out there, the student political groups, and we will see sporadic incidents happening, protests taking place. But let’s see how that goes.
It’s all too early for us to analyse, you know, what will be the future of Bangladesh be like. Okay.
RS: Tarique Rahman was in exile for 17 years, and he recently returned and now he is the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, and also BNP had a landslide victory. So how is he generally viewed by the ordinary people? Do they see him as a fresh hope for change, or a continuation of dynastic politics, or maybe something else? What are people’s main expectations from him, from his leadership? And how is he geopolitically being viewed?
NB: Well, as you said that this is all about dynastic politics, and I think he really rode on the wave of the fact that his father was the President, and mother was the first female Prime Minister of that country. So, and people thought that, you know, this will be a safer option to go for than giving chance to a Jamaat-e-Islami, you know, which has been in power with BNP, but in coalition, right? So handing over power to them solely was not an option that Bangladeshis were thinking.
But yes, we need to also keep note of the fact that there has been a major resurgence for the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami party, the way they have come forward, and the way they have entrenched themselves across the society in Bangladesh. Having said that, the fact that, you know, Tarique Rahman, he won, and he got such a landslide victory, is because people trust him a lot. And they also feel that probably since he comes from that political family, maybe he will be able to take this country forward.
And there was this kind of thought process also there, that okay, after two female Prime Ministers, let us also have, you know, another male Prime Minister, so to say. But let us also see, you know, look into the fact that how he has done his campaigning, which has been quite structured, and I would say, done in a very corporate-like manner. He targeted those audiences where he thought that, you know, he probably will not do well.
So he’s addressed the rural communities more than staying only in Dhaka, which is the capital. But then again, there was a strong opposition also coming from Jamaat. So it was an interesting fight, so to say.
And the Jamaat is also going to be a very strong opposition, as what their Chief, Dr. Shafiqur Rahman has talked about. Having said that, let us also not forget that there is a referendum line. Voting on referendum had also taken place, parallelly along with the, you know, along with the election.
So there is going to be a change in the governance structure of Bangladesh, and it remains to be seen how he overcomes that challenge. So he sees, I mean, for him, the task ahead is extremely difficult. But having said that, to answer your question simply, people really of Bangladesh, they have put in a lot of faith in him.
And I’m sure, you know, some of the steps that we are seeing he’s taken initially. He is also looking forward, and he’s also going to bring in a lot of changes in Bangladesh. And geopolitically, yes, for India, I would say being the closest and the largest neighbour for them.
I think for India, this is also a new Bangladesh that it will be dealing with. Bangladesh is also aware that this is a very different India. And I think I can only speak on India’s behalf, the fact that we need to understand that this is not a Bangladesh that we’ve been viewing, or probably, you know, thought of viewing and we have been viewing since 71.
This is a new Bangladesh. And this is a new generation of politicians, although BNP is a legacy party, but we need to understand that they need change, they want to change. And so they should have their own sovereign rights to carry on with their foreign policy.
Having said that, what I really mean is the fact that if tomorrow, Bangladesh is seen getting closer to China, India needs to live with that fact. Or maybe they probably would like to renew their ties with Pakistan, India needs to live with that fact. But India needs to also, you know, see that how it can, you know, steer ahead with its own neighbourhood first policy and see to it that Bangladesh remains a friend for us.
RS: You mentioned that, Bangladesh can lean towards China or Pakistan. But what are Tarique Rahman’s views on that? Is he more pro-China or pro-Pakistan or pro-India? Where does he really want to work his relations with?
NB: These are early days, and we really cannot say where they will steer their foreign policy towards.
But then if you see, they have said in their manifesto that, you know, they will be friends to all and they’ll be enemy to none. So that is also something that the Wamele government also had followed. Having said that, again, as I said, that this is a very new Bangladesh and they might like to, of course, be more strategically closer to China.
And of course, also with India, with, you know, both these countries would also want to have a working relationship with Bangladesh. But then again, we’ve seen how India has, you know, made its outreach with Tarique Rahman. And the fact that, you know, he’s also welcomed India’s kind of outreach.
And we’ve seen how Dr. Jaishankar had gone there during Khaleeda Zia’s funeral. And also Prime Minister’s invitation to new Prime Minister Tarique Rahman of Bangladesh to come and visit India. So again, all that would be played out very soon in the coming months, and we would know how things would shape up.
But we’ve seen how BNP had been engaging with China as well. So, and that is the reality today. And that’s something that India also understands.
And I’m sure accordingly, we will shape our own foreign policy as far as Bangladesh is concerned.
RS: Do you think his position is stable for now? Or are there any potential challenges ahead, even though they had a very strong opposition?
NB: Well, it’s not even a month since they had their elections and the results came out. So let’s see probably, I mean, the way people have accepted and the way, not just in Bangladesh, but the way countries around Bangladesh and globally, the results have been accepted, despite the fact that India said it was not inclusive since Awami League was not allowed to participate in the polls.
Nevertheless, India has accepted those results. And so everybody is hoping that this is going to be a very different Bangladesh, which will have a very different foreign policy. So in terms of stability, let’s see how that works out.
There is a very strong opposition. And as I said, there is going to be probably now a bicameral legislature, there is going to be changes in the power of the president and the prime minister, which is all given in the referendum. So all those will take time, probably six months to a year, maybe more than that.
And that’s when, you know, we will come to know whether the stability is there at all or not. Okay.
RS: Bangladesh has a legacy of and as you mentioned, Khalida Zia, his mother, and then Sheikh Hasina before. However, in this election, the women’s representation were historically low. Were there any prominent women candidates or any emerging voices standing out?
NB: Well, there were many women individual candidates who, you know, were kind of in the participating in the polls. Having said that, there are women cadres in Jamaat-e-Islami Party and also in BNP.
But of course, yes, the amount of, you know, we saw women voters not coming out as much as was expected. That’s also because these elections were taking place after a lot of violence that has happened there in 2024. And people were, in any case, they were quite fearful of the fact that there could be a lot of violence taking place on February 12, the day the polls had taken place.
So, many women probably, you know, wanted to not go out of homes and, you know, take extra risk. But having said that, we saw women in rural areas were coming out in large numbers. Women were there in Dhaka, in places like Mirpur and all, there were special, you know, polling booths for women were also created.
So, all that had happened. But then again, you know, this is a societal thing. There were, although there was heavy security that was deployed at that point of time, but there was also this care that a lot of violence might take place because Awami League was not allowed to participate.
And there were reports that they might, you know, create some tensions. I think that is the reason why women chose to stay indoors.
RS: Speaking of violence, there was a lot of cases and concerns on the safety and rights of Hindus and Indians. Do you think the situation now is better or worse, or the same with Tarique Rahman and BNP in power? Do you expect any improvements?
NB: Well, not really Indians, but yes, the attacks on minorities have been happening, especially from India’s perspective. Yes, a lot of Hindus were being attacked. Having said that, we must not forget the fact that the Hindus there also constitute a large number of voters who voted for Awami League.
And there had been several cases of local crime as well that had been happening, which probably in India we do not follow. And we’ve been only highlighting cases where, you know, Hindus getting attacked. Yes, that is a concern.
Many Hindu families and members of the Hindu community there have told me that they were concerned, and there are still concerns that minority safeguards are not really properly in place, and that needs to be there. But we also saw Prime Minister Tarique Rahman , when he gave his first address to the nation, he made it very clear that Bangladeshis will not be seen as a Muslim or Hindu or a Christian or a Buddhist. They will be all seen as Bangladeshis.
So I think for him to say that in his very first address to the nation was a very big deal. And I think that gave a lot of assurance to the minority groups there. But it remains to be seen in terms of policy measures, what comes out.
But then let us not forget that while we in India, we would like to highlight and talk about it. Going by my own experience, I’ve not seen any Hindu there talking about the fact that they would want India to save them. They also believe Bangladesh is their own country, and they need the safeguards from their own government.
So a lot of dynamics are at play there, and that is why we see some of this violence taking place. But then the reality within that country, I think that is their internal matter, but they’re also working on it. The very reason why Prime Minister Rahman talked about it, I’m sure that is also one of their priority areas that they will be working on.
RS: According to you, what steps could the new government take to address this? There’s also a lot of anti-India sentiment there. What can the new government do to build a trust amongst the community?
NB: I think trust works both ways. When you talk about bilateral relationship, not just geopolitically, but otherwise also.
In life also, trust works both ways. So I think India needs to also work a lot towards rebuilding the trust that these two countries had, which is why we see now the visa resumption has started. I think the connectivity projects will again start.
There has to be, India has to start the projects that were going on during Sheikh Hasina’s era. So all that will be happening. And I’m sure Bangladesh is also aware that it has to also work with India with a lot of professional attitude.
And I think, again, these are very early days, but Bangladesh has talked about the fact that they will be prioritising some of the like the river water sharing. Teesta is a very big priority for them. And of course, the issue of border killings, all those they will be raising with India sooner than later when these two countries, when the leaders meet.
And that’s when we will see how things unravel. But as I said, building trust is not Bangladesh’s own responsibility. That also is India’s larger responsibility, again, because what Bangladesh feels and that is where the genesis of anti-India sentiment really has started is the fact that Delhi has been in the past decade or so more than that had been only dealing with Sheikh Hasina and Awami League.
Yes, that was the government of the day. And yes, that was our priority. But having said that, I think somewhere down the line, India probably did not do that outreach it should have done with the student political groups out there, with the BNP, with Jamaat, which we see now is happening.
We saw a foreign secretary when he went for the swearing in ceremony of Tarique Rahman, he reached out and he met the Jamaat-e-Islami chief, which I think was a very big step. India is not again putting all its egg in one basket. So again, coming to your question, trust will work both ways.
So both these countries would now need to walk a very tightrope cautiously and see to it that sentiments don’t get hurt. And there has to be more people to people linkages. I think we need to allow more Bangladeshi artists, singers, painters to come to India.
And of course, Indian businessmen should go there and invest. So I think all those discussions will happen. We need to wait and watch.
I think the turning point would be when these two leaders meet, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, and that’s when we will see how the new chapter begins. All right.
RS: What could be the roadmap for the next few years for India and Bangladesh? Since we had a very close relations with Bangladesh and Sheikh Hasina was in power, can we expect a relationship like that to build on or will it be something else? What is your take on this?
NB: Whether the relationship will be as good as it was under Sheikh Hasina again remains to be seen how these two countries work together. But then this is, again, a very different Bangladesh and Tarique Rahman is very much aware of the fact that there is this entrenched anti-India sentiment in the society now. So India needs to also work its way through all of that.
But then in the coming months, let’s see how these two leaders meet. And I think it is imperative for these two leaders to now go ahead and have a meeting, a bilateral meeting. Again, you know, there will be questions whether Tarique Rahman will be going to China first in his first, you know, visit abroad or he comes to India first.
But even if he goes to China, I think we should not be too concerned. Rather, we should focus on some of the priority areas that we need to work on. Also, I think India is having this wait and watch scenario where there will be a lot of changes within their own governance structure.
So all that will impact the relationship. But then whether it will be as good as it was under Sheikh Hasina, again, that depends what India being the biggest neighbour for Bangladesh, what it does. I mean, I think the baby steps that we can take at this point of time, such as, visa resumption has started.
We should restart the projects as soon as possible. We should restart the connectivity projects and also go ahead with some of the promises that we’ve made them to Bangladesh when Sheikh Hasina was in power. And that is how you can gain the trust of the young generation there.
We must not forget the demands that the young generation is expecting from India. We cannot be telling them constantly that, okay, this is, you know, it was India that got you independence in 1971. All that is history.
They appreciate that history, but then they want their new identity to be also respected. And I think India knows that. It’s very much aware.
So we need to also take a very different turn and take this relationship in a very different new role. It will require a lot of skilful diplomacy, and I’m sure our diplomats are aware about all that. We are going to very soon have a new high commissioner in Bangladesh.
So I’m hoping that when that happens and when these two leaders meet, Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, there will be some of the actionable points on which these two countries will be working. And that will tell us and signal to the world what shape and how healthy this relationship is going to be.
RS: What do you think India’s priority is as of now with Bangladesh? Is it resolving anti-India sentiments or is it the connectivity projects, or what is our number one priority as of now with Bangladesh?
NB: Well, our priority, of course, has to be to see that, you know, our security concerns are also being taken care of by Bangladesh. And they have clearly stated that they will not allow any country to have, you know, to use Bangladesh, soil of Bangladesh against India. And I’m sure that remains primary concern, which is why India is concerned that, you know, what if tomorrow Bangladesh gets closer with China and Pakistan? So I think from India’s perspective, security concerns are of utmost importance.
But having said that, I don’t think India should be looking through the lens of security interest only. It should do its work bringing the neighbour that is Bangladesh, and of course, other neighbours as well, as much as possible, and do what it wants to do under the Neighbourhood First policy. And again, we would see what will be our priority areas when these two leaders meet.
But yes, we know for a fact that India would definitely expect Bangladesh to see that India’s security interests are taken care of. We really hope that they have a bilateral meeting soon, and they do resolve all of those problems.
NB: The fact that for India now and for Indians at large, we should not really see Bangladesh from the perspective of how we have been viewing for all these years. And of course, now with West Bengal elections coming up and elections in Assam, we must also restrain the language that we use internally for our own domestic political gains, because this also creates a lot of tension across the border.
We should not be using the term Bangladeshi, you know, it sounds like an insult, what some of our political leaders are doing. I think we need to keep a check on that, which is extremely important. And once we do that, I think, again, it’s very important to get the sentiments right.
And once that is there, once you have people’s support, and people are willing to kind of, you know, have a working relationship with you, it makes it easier for the government of the day to also have a good and cordial relationship with your neighbours, right. So I think the coming months with the state elections coming up in India, we need to ensure that happens. And that is very important, which we might not take it seriously.
But in Bangladesh, they are very well aware, and they’re watching us constantly. So I think that is what I think is extremely important. And rest, of course, it’s a G2G, the government to government relationship and how that shapes up.
And accordingly, the discourse will take place.
Nayanima Basu is a journalist who writes on issues of foreign policy and is the author of “The Fall of Kabul: Despatches from Chaos”.
Raveena Shivashankar is the digital media associate at Gateway House.
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