Courtesy: Gateway House
Early indicators of the ongoing war in West Asia point to a conflict trajectory from the rapid decision to the controlled escalation to distributed strike capacity, advanced military integration and mounting regional exposure. Much like Johann Goethe’s Sorcerer’s Apprentice, conflicts initiated based on assumptions of control can acquire a momentum of their own.
Courtesy: Gateway House
The assumption that the Iranian public will rise up against its religious and political leadership, seizing the opportunity provided by Israel and U.S. strikes against Iran, may not prove true. Iran’s civilisational structure is resilient, and its educated population may not like being dictated to by the West. Raja Karthikeya, a former international civil servant based in Tehran, examines the escalating U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, its regional and domestic implications and the tenacity of Iran’s political system amid external pressure.
Courtesy: Gateway House
Iran has often stood at the crossroads of social and political metamorphosis and regional geopolitical recalibration, from the Islamic Revolution of 1979 to the attrition of the Iran-Iraq War. The current landscape reflects the convergence, once again, of internal pressures and sharper deterrence postures, that the social compact—from a Lockean and Rousseauian perspective—needs a new edition, and that timely diplomacy to prevent escalation is required.
Courtesy: AFP
The arc of revolutions has two acts: rupture - upending the status quo - and the craft of repair. Often, the second is as hard as the first. Today's Pax Fragilis in Gaza is narrow, given the continuing humanitarian crisis, regional reactiveness, limited scope of de-escalation channels, multiple actors' motivations for a permanent ceasefire, and the capabilities of Israel and Palestine to build a pathway with certainty.
Courtesy: Gateway House
Over two centuries, the U.S. has amassed vast economic powers across the globe during and after the two World Wars , and sanctions slowly became an effective tool it used to achieve its foreign policy goals, becoming the global emperor of sanctions.
Courtesy: TDB
Financial intermediaries are critical lubricants for business, growth and development. The Indo-Pacific countries are industrializing, but smaller nations lag behind economically. The Quad countries can aid the advancement of the financial architecture in the Indo-Pacific by helping to develop an ecosystem, modelled on the examples of Japan and India.
Courtesy: Flickr
Three senior U.S. officials visited Asia in July in a well-choreographed diplomatic outreach strategy by the Biden administration. The U.S is willing to prioritise the Indo-Pacific and counter China. Asia cannot afford to be a reticent bystander.
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The UN turned 75 this year but instead of grand celebrations, the world witnessed an empty UNGA with world leaders addressing it via video screening because of the pandemic. The UN is under unprecedented stress and being shown up for its inability to tackle the challenges of today like the pandemics, climate change, terrorism or global peace and security. The institution's key governing structures, especially the UN Security Council, are inadequate and demand reform. India must now use gritty resolve to ensure its place in these governing structures.
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The OPEC’s proposed cut in oil production earlier this week may not enable the energy market to recover. Recovery is likely only after COVID-19 is brought under control, but there are ways India can capitalise on the current low oil prices for its own energy security
Courtesy: Foreign Affairs
Countries in the Middle East, such as Iran, Israel or Saudi Arabia, do not want a military confrontation. Yet, current circumstances conduce to the breaking out of just such a war