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The 11th Presidential election of Iran will be held on June 14, 2013. Why will this election be a test for the Islamic Republic’s stability? What are the factors at play that make this election critical; and more importantly, why must India monitor it closely?
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The Arab uprisings show no sign of closure, and have become amorphous. While New Delhi has so far been immunised from the political and religious dimensions of the uprisings, the rise of political Islam, Islamic governance, and continuing instability will impact India.
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India’s relations with Islamic nations, many of which are members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), have become even more prolific over the last decade. While India does not visualise becoming a member of a religious international body, many reasons militate against our formally joining the OIC.
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Rivals Iran and Egypt have become the two most important powers in today’s West Asia. Yet, Iran is looking for neither a smooth victory nor a quick failure for Egypt’s rise. Tehran will remain the key regional player, while it’s too early to tell if Cairo is capable of overcoming Iran’s influence.
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U.S. President Barack Obama will certainly have the benefit of continuity in his second term, but he has a range of impending crises to address immediately - be it to avert the so-called fiscal cliff before the end of the year when automatic cuts kick in or plan for the military drawdown from Afghanistan.
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In a recent speech, U.S. Presidential candidate Mitt Romney criticised incumbent President Barack Obama's foreign policies, and called for U.S. supremacy. However, it seems apparent that Romney wouldn’t usher in a foreign policy revolution if elected.
With the Free Syrian Army being supplied aid by the West and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, the endgame for the Syrian regime has begun. Does Assad's exit guarantee the replacement of autocracy with democracy? What implications will it have on regional politics?
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The involvement of Islamists in democratic movements is usually dismissed as a mere ruse to attain political power. However, evidence suggests that people in Muslim-majority democracies support Islamist groups which challenge a dishonest government, rather than those who seek to establish Islamic autocracy.
Courtesy: Gateway House
Gateway House prepared a Global Stability Map, using 20 differing indicators, to analyze the stability of 60 countries around the world. Using criteria that are important to the emerging economies of the world, the map provides an Indian perspective of the world today.
Courtesy: The White House
Apart from bilateral ties, also at play at the India-U.S. Strategic dialogue is the difficult triangulation in India’s relations with the U.S. and Iran. It does not serve India to get enmeshed in the U.S-Iran confrontation. Instead, the relationship must develop on the basis of realpolitik and mutual interest.