The February 26 legislative elections[1] in Iran that unseated the majority of distinguished hardliners of the outgoing parliament and sent a number of popular reformists, as well as lesser-known moderates, to the Majlis (the Islamic Consultative Assembly) communicated a clear, unambiguous signal to global observers that Iran is poised for social, political and economic reform, and that the Iranian people no longer trust in the ultraconservatives who wish to push the country to the edge of isolation with adventurous, confrontational policies.
As there are no major political parties in Iran and politicians are mostly categorised by their ideological slant—which sometimes overlap vaguely—it is not possible to accurately say how the parliament seats were divided between the reformists and conservatives. What is clearly determined is that all the 30 seats of the Tehran constituency[2], the most important electoral district nationwide, were sweepingly won by the reformists close to President Rouhani. A Deutsche Welle Persian estimate puts the number of reformists elected to the 290-member Majlis at 85 while the conservatives who were officially on the list of the coalition of the principalists (as they call themselves) grabbed 80 seats[3]. Fifty-one seats went to the candidates with no political affiliation, identified as independents, while five seats were dedicated to religious minorities. There will be a run-off vote in April for the remaining 69 seats, for which 138 hopefuls will be contesting.
It is widely speculated that the defining election results will strongly impact the future of Iran’s foreign policy trajectory and restyle its relations with the international community. The incumbent hardliners in the 9th parliament pulled out all the stops to hinder President Rouhani’s efforts to reach out to the United States and seal a much-awaited nuclear agreement with the six world powers[4]. Disputes over Iran’s nuclear programme had complicated the nation’s relations with the world for some 12 years. However, public pressure from the supporters of Iran’s moderate, pro-reform president, coupled with the unwavering backing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, much to the chagrin of hardliners, made the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action possible last summer[5].
Now, as Iran emerges from the rubbles of more than a decade of devastating economic sanctions, it has embarked on a quest to reunite with its traditional trade partners and embrace new ones. It is quite conceivable that a parliament with far-sighted lawmakers who prioritise the mending of Iran’s diplomatic relations and foreign trade can accelerate President Rouhani’s plans for “constructive engagement” with the international community[6]. Indispensable among Iran’s trading partners is India, with which it has conventionally had close economic exchanges and affable political ties. Until 2011, Iran was India’s third largest supplier of crude oil[7], when the noose of international sanctions started to be tightened and Iran’s economy, as well as its oil exports, began shrinking and collapsing drastically. In compliance with the sanctions regime, India restricted its trade deals with Iran, and the oil imports slumped considerably.
However, as the sanctions and oil embargo have been annulled, Iran and India are rushing to bring their trade ties back to pre-sanctions levels. State-run India Oil Corporation has announced it is ready to start “unrestricted imports” from Iran[8].
As the world’s fastest-growing economy[9], India eyes Iran for collaboration in a variety of financial and industrial fields. Since the inking of the July 2015 nuclear deal, several high-profile Indian delegations have travelled to Iran, and Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Javad Zarif[10] and the Minister of Finance Ali Tayyebnia[11], have returned the visits. While the value of bilateral trade between Iran and India stands at around billion, there are things beyond oil, fertilisers, cereals, and chemicals that Iran can export to India. Reciprocally, Iran can import India’s technological products and utilise the subcontinent nation’s information and communications expertise and knowledge. Additionally, Iran finds itself in dire need of assistance for furthering its infrastructural projects and, as Mr. Rajiv Kumar, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, has said, it would definitely look to India for technical skills[12].
The development of Chabahar port southeast of Iran, which will give India direct, undeterred access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, would be one of the main attractions for New Delhi authorities in dealing with Iran, and it is comprehensible that Indians attach great importance to investments in this strategically imperative project to be able to bypass Pakistan in reaching out to Afghanistan and the former Soviet Union republics[13].
Furthermore, as Tehran looks to diversify its sources of importing medicine and pharmaceutical products, India appears a reliable and appealing provider, especially as the Iranians have already admitted that India is the best producer of generic drugs in the world and Iran’s needs are growing steadily[14].
With the commitment President Hassan Rouhani has shown to expand Iran’s international connections, restore the country’s lost share of the global energy market, and realise a projected GDP growth of 5.8% in 2016[15], and with the imminent inauguration of a fresh-minded parliament that is obviously concerned about Iran’s relations with the community of nations, one can await a full-blown development of Iran-India ties in the years, if not the months to come.
Kourosh Ziabari is an award-winning Iranian journalist, media correspondent and peace activist. He is a regular contributor to Gateway House.
This article was exclusively written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can read more exclusive content here.
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[1] ‘Iran elections: Five things to know’, BBC News, 24 February 2016, <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35614493>
[2] ‘Iran election: Reformists win all 30 Tehran seats’, BBC News, 28 February 2016, <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35681250>
[3] ‘Looking to the future composition of the Assembly of Experts and Parliament’, Deutsche Welle Persian, 1 March 2016, <http://www.dw.com/fa-ir/%D9%86%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%A8-%D8%A2%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C/a-19084023>
[4] ‘Iran nuclear deal: Key details’, BBC News, 16 January 2016, <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33521655>
[5] Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, 14 July 2015, <http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf>
[6] ‘Iran’s Rouhani Wants “Constructive Engagement”‘, Voice of America, 20 September 2013, <http://www.voanews.com/content/irans-rouhani-wants-constructive-engagement/1753946.html>
[7] Verma, Nidhi, ‘India’s country-wise crude oil imports since 2001/02′, Reuters, 6 August 2012, <http://in.reuters.com/article/india-crude-import-idINL4E8IU4HI20120806>
[8] ‘India looks to raise oil imports from Iran as sanctions lifted’, The Economic Times, 18 January 2016, <http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2016-01-18/news/69870462_1_indian-oil-corp-past-oil-dues-farzad-b>
[9] Kleintop, Jeffrey, ‘India Becomes World’s Fastest Growing Economy: What Investors Need to Know’, Charles Schwab, 23 November 2015, <http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/India-Becomes-World-s-Fastest-Growing-Economy-What-Investors-Need-to-Know>
[10] Roy, Shubhajit, ‘Iran foreign minister Javad Zarif meets PM Modi today’, The Indian Express, 14 August 2015, <http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/iran-foreign-minister-javad-zarif-meets-pm-modi-today/>
[11] ‘India attaches importance to ties with Iran: PM Modi’, The Indian Express, 29 December 2015, <http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/india-attaches-importance-to-ties-with-iran-says-pm-modi/>
[12] Raghavan, TCA, ‘Iran sanctions end: Cheaper oil, more trade opportunities for India’, The Hindu, 18 January 2016, <http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/iran-sanctions-end-cheaper-oil-more-trade-opportunities-for-india/article8116964.ece>
[13] ‘Chabahar Port: The New Kingmaker for Indian Ocean Trade’, Asian Warrior, August 2015, <http://www.asianwarrior.com/2015/08/chabahar-port-new-kingmaker-for-indian.html#.VvJeINIrLcu>
[14] ‘Iran keen to increase tea, medicine imports from India: Commerce Secretary Rajeev Kher’, The Economic Times, 14 April 2015, <http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-04-14/news/61142241_1_indian-tea-tea-exports-iran-keen>
[15] ‘World Bank expects Iran’s economic growth to hit 5.8% in 2016′, PressTV, 8 January 2016, <http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/01/08/445006/World-Bank-expects-Irans-economic-growth-to-hit-58-in-2016–/>