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The war in West Asia is crowded with armaments and players, but there is one presence that is LOB, or Left Out of the Battle: that of Europe. The Continent is peripheral in the current crisis. Structural constraints, strategic dependence on the U.S., internal political divisions, and a shift in Europe’s geopolitical priorities since the war in Ukraine, has reduced its strategic weight.
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Germany’s prospects in 2026 are defined by tension rather than momentum. The country is neither in crisis nor comfortably on a path to renewal. Instead, it is engaged in a difficult process of adjustment, seeking to reconcile fiscal restraint with strategic ambition, social protection with demographic reality, and climate leadership with industrial competitiveness.
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Macron’s 2025 tour of Southeast Asia was intended to reinforce France’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific. By engaging with three key ASEAN members - Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore - France wants to forge partnerships beyond its traditional transatlantic ties. Its Indo-Pacific vision is based on its territorial presence, economic interests, and diplomacy values, which it hopes will be an alternative to the binary logic of U.S.-China rivalry.
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New German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s early decisions suggest that foreign and security policy will be defining features of his chancellorship. The coalition agreement reflects a conservative yet pragmatic response to changing global dynamics.
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Recent state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia in east Germany saw the far-right Alternative for Democracy (AfD) and the left-wing Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) make significant gains in vote share. With German federal elections just a year away, major parties like the ruling CDU and SPD which have seen voter support erode considerably, will now have to re-strategise to stay relevant in Germany’s transforming political landscape.
Courtesy: Deutscher Bundestag
The most significant international task ahead of Germany’s new three-party ‘traffic light’ coalition is to strengthen the relationship with Europe, reduce the imbalance in the relationship with the U.S. and influence the behaviour of important economic partners, Russia and China.
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It may take Chancellor Angela Merkel weeks to negotiate a new coalition, but the vote for stability means that change will only be at the margins of current domestic and foreign policy. Still, the fallout of the election in the EU and beyond, including in India, should not be underestimated