The war in West Asia is crowded with armaments and players, but there is one presence that is LOB, or Left Out of the Battle: that of Europe. The Continent is peripheral in the current crisis. Structural constraints, strategic dependence on the U.S., internal political divisions, and a shift in Europe’s geopolitical priorities since the war in Ukraine, has reduced its strategic weight.

Germany’s prospects in 2026 are defined by tension rather than momentum. The country is neither in crisis nor comfortably on a path to renewal. Instead, it is engaged in a difficult process of adjustment, seeking to reconcile fiscal restraint with strategic ambition, social protection with demographic reality, and climate leadership with industrial competitiveness.