After a year affected by a sustained polycrisis, global geopolitics in 2024 remains a delicate dance between hope and realism. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza cast uncertain shadows, while Taiwan and the South China Sea present potential flashpoints. Indian diplomacy will have to navigate old and new challenges, while promoting India’s expertise in digital technology, as also managing its own upcoming parliamentary elections.

The inaugural summit of the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI), hosted by India earlier this month, drew special attention given the dramatic strides made in the field in the past year. As it prepares to chair the GPAI in 2024, India can draw on its large workforce, the university system and the technology stack to steer conversations on AI regulation, innovation and deployment towards a balanced and equitable path.

India’s G20 presidency was effective in insulating the forum from geopolitical turbulence and placing the spotlight on the Global South. Although the G20 stands strengthened today due to India’s creative and forward-looking presidency, member nations confronting inter-state contestations, domestic elections and concurrent economic crises in the coming year will have to muster the political will to ensure a sustained commitment to the grouping's promises.

On December 1, 2023, India will hand over the G20 Presidency to Brazil. The G20 troika will now comprise the three IBSA countries – India, Brazil, South Africa – till November 2025. This trio has an agenda in common and with the G20, such as multilateral reform, energy transitions and digitalisation. IBSA should use its mechanisms and natural solidarity to advance the interests of the Global South.

On November 17, India hosted the Voice of the Global South Summit – the second such meeting this year. While the first summit helped India mould the agenda for its G20 presidency, this latest meeting, convened towards the end of the presidency, was aimed at sustaining the momentum, with the support of developing countries, for the implementation of G20 decisions.

The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war less than a month after the conclusion of the New Delhi Summit has heightened the geopolitical anxieties that hovered over India’s G20 presidency year. As the baton passes to Brazil, purposeful action, careful diplomacy and managing conflicting interests will be key to the implementation of the Summit’s commitments.

Europe's increased focus on the Indo-Pacific and the deepening economic and technological collaboration with India offer mutual benefits. However, the EU's ambivalent approach towards China, and the desire of most European states to maintain neutrality in the U.S.-China rivalry might not be sustainable in the long run.

At the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on October 26, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stressed the importance of maintaining regional stability and enhancing economic cooperation in Central Asia. Achieving its economic and strategic objectives in the SCO will become a challenge for Indian diplomacy next year, when Pakistan takes on the chairmanship of the grouping.

Prolonged violence between the military and opposition forces in Myanmar has eroded political stability in the country and led to large-scale displacement within the country. Despite diplomatic efforts led by ASEAN and other nations to find effective solutions, Myanmar’s on-ground situation appears unlikely to see any significant improvement in the near future.

The recent presidential election outcome in the Maldives reflected a thriving democracy driven by voters' concerns for key domestic issues like employment, housing, education and healthcare. To portray the election as a football match between China and India resulting in the latter’s defeat is to ignore how South Asia's smallest state functions.