Although China does not want to usurp the United States’ position as the leader of a global order, its actual aim is nearly as consequential. As one Chinese official put it, “Being a great power means you get to do what you want, and no one can say anything about it.” In other words, China is trying to displace, rather than replace, the United States.
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Experts estimate the likelihood of a U.S.-Chinese nuclear crisis as “somewhere between nil and zero.” This assurance is misguided. The United States' signature approach to conventional warfare would be a potential recipe for nuclear escalation.
The immediate threat is more corrosive than explosive. States are using the tools of cyberwarfare to undermine the very foundation of the Internet: trust. The result is that an arena that the world relies on for economic and informational exchange has turned into an active battlefield.
Beijing and Moscow are close, but not allies. Scholars and journalists in the West find themselves debating the nature of the Chinese-Russian partnership and wondering whether it will evolve into an alliance.
As China goes global it is making a concerted effort at improving its international image and boosting its soft power. But is this strategy translating into an improvement of its soft power quotient?
It is clear by now that China’s economy is set to slow in the years to come, although economists disagree about how much and for how long.
When the average growth rate in emerging markets hit over seven percent a year in the last decade, forecasters hyped its implications. Today, more than five years after the financial crisis of 2008, the euphoria seems to have waned
In the next decade, China will continue to rise, not fade. Its leaders will consolidate the one-party model and, in the process, challenge the West’s smug certainty about political development and the inevitable march toward electoral democracy.
The Obama administration plans to restrain Chinese belligerence by reinforcing U.S. military and diplomatic links to the Asia-Pacific. However, in order to avoid further Chinese resistance to its policies, the U.S. must look for possible avenues of cooperation with the country.
There’s been much talk about the “the rise of the rest,” with Brazil, Russia, India, and China leading the charge. However, few countries can sustain unusually fast growth for a decade, and even fewer, for more than that. As the boom years begin to end, the international order won’t change as much as expected.