The arc of revolutions has two acts: rupture - upending the status quo - and the craft of repair. Often, the second is as hard as the first. Today's Pax Fragilis in Gaza is narrow, given the continuing humanitarian crisis, regional reactiveness, limited scope of de-escalation channels, multiple actors' motivations for a permanent ceasefire, and the capabilities of Israel and Palestine to build a pathway with certainty.

America’s allies say they will recognise a Palestinian state by September unless Israel agrees to a ceasefire and a two-state solution. Apart from rewarding Hamas, creating a new state has multiple legal, cartographic, social and military implications that have not been considered. Better to provide much-needed food and medical aid for now, than posture for a solution.

Hamas faces an existential crisis in Gaza now that the Israeli army has captured its military headquarters and operating tunnels in northern Gaza. So far Israel has successfully ignored international pressure to limit its ground operation. In between are the Gazans, caught within an ideology they don’t trust.

By blending Islam, Marxism-Leninism, Arab nationalism, and Third World radicalism during the 1960s, Yasser Arafat succeeded beyond expectations, in impactfully putting the Palestinian question forward for international attention. The spoiler was Hamas, with its jihadi calls for the cause of Palestine and rejection of peace initiatives.

The Israel-Hamas War has shown the devastating impact of disinformation as a strategy of unconventional warfare. This narrative-led approach begins before hostilities start and seeks to set the agenda for leaders, their militaries and geopolitics. Democratic societies like India must prepare for similarly coordinated strategies and build societal resilience to manipulation.

There are multiple threads running through the Israel-Hamas conflict, and multiple interests. The long-running cast of the Arab and Western worlds are on site, but now so is a newly-assertive Qatar. Two others are potential players: the expanded BRICS grouping and India, which will soon co-invest in the India-Middle East Europe Corridor. Will they be drawn into the West Asian quagmire?

The Israel-Hamas conflict can further destabilise a world already weighed down by the Ukraine war and U.S.-China tensions. Escalation is inevitable, unless Europe recovers its traditional mediating role of advocating for ceasefire, dialogue and negotiated solutions, the Axis of Resistance desists, and the BRICS-11 play balancer. For the first time, there are many actors in an arena where the US was accustomed to being a soloist.