As 2014 draws to a close, we follow the calendar and link the visits and visitors to the relevant Gateway House articles, videos and research papers.
May
Modi’s invitation to the leaders of the eight SAARC countries to his swearing-in ceremony in New Delhi revealed what became one of the leitmotifs of his foreign policy—a focus on neighbours.
June
Bhutan
The decision to make Bhutan the prime minister’s first foreign destination, was unconventional, but it re-emphasised the primacy of the neighbourhood in his world view.
In his address to Bhutan’s Parliament, Modi strategically inverted a conventional idea: instead of saying that “strong and prosperous small neighbours” are good for India, he argued that a strong India will benefit the neighbourhood.
July
BRICS
At the 6th BRICS Summit in Fortaleza, Brazil, Modi had his first meeting with his counterparts in this powerful new grouping of leaders seeking to moderate western political and economic dominance, and the New Development Bank was launched. The decision to locate the bank in Shanghai was a clear victory for China, but India did well too, as the first presidency of the new Bank is to vest with India. However it is not an equal compromise: location is permanent whereas the presidency is rotational.
India’s big diplomatic victory was to secure an equal share in the Bank’s initial subscribed capital of $50 billion, with equal voting rights among the five members.
August
Nepal
The overwhelmingly positive response of the Nepali people, media and parliamentarians during Modi’s visit vindicated his policy of giving serious consideration to India’s neighbours. He framed Nepali concerns respectfully, offered unconditional support, and publicly abjured interference in their Constitution-writing process. The $1 billion line of credit announced is crucial for Nepal, which does not have the financial muscle to invest in its own hydropower resources.
Modi’s friendship with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was evident in Tokyo. Optics apart, Modi had a job to do: secure investment from Japan. This came in the promise of $35 billion in manufacturing and infrastructure over the next five years. India will have to implement deep regulatory reforms to draw the maximum benefits from Japan’s assurance of public and private investment.
Some hopes on the defence and strategic side remain are still incomplete, like the bilateral Agreement for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, which were not completed during Modi’s visit.
September
Shortly after Modi marked 100 days in office, the visit of Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott to India culminated in the signing of the agreement on Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy which will allow us to buy uranium from Australia.
China
The month saw Chinese President Xi Jinping travel to India as well. The outcome was one of historic proportions in the economic arena. China promised to invest $20 billion in India over the next five years. Around 30 MoUs were signed across a spectrum of sectors including industrial parks and railway modernisation, and several agreements were signed between Indian and Chinese private entities as well as banks.
Despite the appearance of bonhomie, the lack of trust in the bilateral was evident. Fundamental differences on the border were starkly highlighted by the face-offs between troops at Chumar and a “civilian confrontation” at Demchok in Ladakh while Xi was in India. Strangely, Xi himself chairs the Central Military Commission and has to approve any military action.
U.S.
Modi made his maiden visit to the U.S., where he successfully repaired a bilateral that been suffering neglect and discord over intellectual property rights, trade disputes, diplomatic butts and business disengagement. Modi brought his domestic economic agenda to the fore—infrastructure development, sanitation and smart cities—and into the joint vision statement, published as an unprecedented joint Op-Ed in The Washington Post.
Demonstrating an understanding of American and Indian strengths, Modi and U.S. President Barack Obama made virtual, not physical, infrastructure-building and services the operating principle of the bilateral. The renewal of the 2005 Framework for the U.S.-India Defence Relationship for a further 10 years reflects this new technology-driven narrative.
In a dramatic meeting in New York, Modi urged the Indian diaspora to invest in India and demonstrate success—much in the way the government of Deng Xiaoping lured overseas Chinese investment into the country in 1978,
However there was little concrete progress on a number of crucial issues such as clean energy (export of American LNG) and climate change on which there were no concrete agreements. There was also no change on the visa issue which is of great importance to Indian IT companies.
October
Vietnam
During strategic partner Vietnam’s prime minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s visit to India this week, seven agreements were signed, the most critical being the sale of four naval patrol vessels to Vietnam, and an oil exploration agreement between ONGC and PetroVietnam.
November
Modi met the ASEAN leaders in Naypyidaw, and announced a shift in emphases from India’s ‘Look East’ policy to the more active ‘Act East’ policy. He underlined the importance of regional connectivity and made specific recommendations to improve ASEAN-India relations such as the establishment of a special purpose vehicle for project financing, building information highways, and inviting ASEAN countries to participate in India’s “Make in India” initiative.
G20
The G20 Summit in Sydney resolved to raise global GDP growth by 2% (or by $2 trillion), increase employment opportunities (especially the number of women in the global workforce), introduce transparency in tax laws, and harmonise reporting standards across jurisdictions. Modi brought up the issue of black money, which was translated into a reference in the final G20 communiqué about the repatriation of undisclosed incomes stashed abroad.
Among the five agreements signed, the accord on social security is of greatest relevance to India as it ensures that the social security payments made by Indian professionals working in western nations are repaid when they leave that country permanently.
Australia
The day after the G20 meeting, Modi commenced a bilateral meeting in Australia with his counterpart Abbott. In the defence sector, the establishment of a Framework for Security Cooperation will position Australia as India’s closest security partner in the region.
As in New York City, Modi’s address to the Indian diaspora at a stadium in Sydney was a festive gathering. It underlined his government’s emphasis on mobilising people of Indian origin abroad and exhorting them to serve of their homeland in whatever capacity they can.
Fiji
Modi became the first foreign leader to address the parliament in Fiji. The country’s approach to Indians has evolved since they were disenfranchised in the 1980s to the present day when the Constitution provides equality for all. The prime minister pledged India’s support to the region by setting up a $70 million line of credit along with a number of other agreements including announcing a visa on arrival for citizens of Fiji and 13 other Pacific island-countries.
At the 18th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit in Kathmandu, there were high hopes on Modi to promote an agenda of increased regional connectivity to promote growth in the entire region.
But the political enfeeblement of Pakistan did not permit for all the goals to be met. Pakistan finally signed the SAARC Framework Agreement for Energy Cooperation (Electricity), but was unable to acquiesce to the agreements on rail and road connectivity—all the more unfortunate because Pakistan has minimal rail and road connectivity with and through India to the rest of SAARC.
December
Russia
In Delhi, President Vladimir Putin and Modi signed three key energy agreements, with nuclear cooperation at the centre. This has reestablished Russia as a trusted friend and major partner for India in defence supplies and nuclear technology. Ten more nuclear power reactors will now be built in India with Russian assistance over the next 20 years.
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