Can the U.S. up the game with India?

Washington – When U.S. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet next month they will both be trying to gauge each other’s personal commitment to taking the relationship forward.

Lofty rhetoric apart, the two sides have to find firm ground in which to anchor the relationship. It is a search and rescue mission of sorts – to look for one or two key areas on which to focus diplomatic attention and produce results.

Modi will come here after an unusual burst of diplomatic activity in India’s neighbourhood and beyond. The message: everyone and everything is in play and he is open to all possibilities.

The creation of the BRICS bank caught Washington’s attention as will India’s soon-to-be-completed membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a group projected as a counter to NATO. Russia and China are the main powers behind SCO.

The SCO for years offered India only “observer” status, which New Delhi rightly rejected, but Chinese President Xi Jinping decided to change course and admit India in an obvious attempt to undermine the U.S. pivot to Asia. India’s inclusion in the SCO would mean moderation of the grouping’s anti-West bias, which should calm Washington’s nerves to some extent but it is sure to feed the naysayers who will see India’s membership as a kind of betrayal.

If the focus is long-term strategic convergence of Indian and American interests, the hurdle can be crossed. Modi’s visit can help assuage some of the concern.

Recent visits by three U.S. cabinet officials to New Delhi in rapid succession have laid some of the groundwork for the Obama-Modi meeting, and removed the clutter of disaffection to a significant extent. In the U.S. assessment, the issue of Modi’s visa denial is now well and truly buried alongside other more recent spats.

The American visitors went out of their way to present their kinder, gentler side, prompting the U.S. media to question the sudden rhetorical shift. After three years of hectoring, NSA spying and visa denying, the deliberate shift was, indeed, a much-needed antidote.

While Secretary of State John Kerry may not have moved mountains, partly, because he was distracted by negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel achieved more success in finding focus on the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI).

From the U.S. perspective, the visits went “extraordinarily well” and the relationship might be at a “potentially transformative” moment. What is clear is that Washington wants Modi’s visit to be successful – be it in terms of concrete forward movement on the bilateral agenda, or in Modi making a real connection with America and Indian Americans.

Modi for his part wants American help in expanding India’s manufacturing base and improving India’s energy security. He discussed both issues at some length with Kerry and Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker. Expansion of LNG exports to India is one of the areas of possible progress during Modi’s visit.

There is appreciation in official Washington circles of the domestic constraints Modi faces as he goes about implementing his ideas. Criticism of India’s WTO stand, and collapse of the Trade Facilitation Agreement has been muted, especially from U.S. officials known to be voluble on trade issues.

The Obama Administration also understands that the budget presented by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is an interim one and not the final test of the government’s commitment to economic reform. Next year’s budget would be the real deal.

The recent meetings also helped revive some of the working groups and dialogues – India and the U.S. have around 30 bilateral dialogues most of which have seen little progress. In preparation for Modi’s visit, some key dialogues will see an injection of new life, especially those on homeland security, counter terrorism, the joint CEO forum and the trade policy forum.

But it is the defence relationship, which may see the biggest movement. The two sides are likely to announce the commencement of talks on extending the defence framework agreement by another 10 years. The current one expires next year.

The framework agreement, signed in 2005, was a breakthrough document covering all aspects of the defence relationship – technology transfers, training of personnel, military exercises and weapons sales. The origins of the DTTI, under which both countries plan to develop and co-produce weapon systems, lie in the framework agreement.

The U.S. side has offered some ideas for the DTTI – production of the next generation Javelin missile, guns, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles – but India is yet to respond. Some Indian analysts have criticised the projects on offer as not cutting-edge enough. Some have even said that the U.S. is using the DTTI to push aside other countries trying to sell India similar weapons.

This criticism ignores the fact that until a few years ago the U.S. would never have dreamt of producing offensive weapons with India. They also ignore the rapid progress made in the defence relationship over a relatively short period of time.

The U.S. defence industry is one of the most regulated in the country. Guarding of crown jewels, as it were, is the U.S. bureaucracy’s main obsession. Recent developments can be considered baby steps in cooperation and to include India in the top run of recipients of technology will take sustained political commitment than is currently evident.

The India-U.S. bilateral does have a long way to go, but to constantly focus on the negatives is to set up a false paradigm and ensure failure.

If the complexity of today’s world is part of the calculation, which it must be, then New Delhi and Washington must continue to build on the existing positives of their relationship.

Seema Sirohi is a Washington-based analyst and a frequent contributor to Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. Seema is also on Twitter, and her handle is @seemasirohi

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