Unfolding Geopolitics | Episode 11, U.S. elections: pernicious and polarising

The last two weeks have been turbulent for U.S. politics. A past president and current candidate survived an assassination attempt; a current president is forced to withdraw from contesting for the next term; a new nominee has replaced him in a flash. This is set against the backdrop of tumultuous domestic and international politics.

Neelam Deo, Co-Founder of Gateway House, and former Ambassador who has served in Washington and New York, and follows US politics closely, offers some insight.

Note: This episode was originally recorded on 25 July, 2024.

Transcript:

Manjeet Kripalani: U.S. elections seem to have become elitist, with a small elite cabal deciding who runs the country and its policies.

Neelam Deo: Yes. President Joe Biden was imposed upon to step aside. Within 48 hours of his announcement, over 2,000 votes were gathered by Kamala Harris to secure the Democratic nomination for President. Nearly $100 hundred million dollars was raised for her election fund, and 117 Congressmen, 17 Senators, eight Governors and powerful people like Nancy Pelosi have endorsed her.

An elite grouping can really change things in American politics. The Republicans are a lot more confused in their strategy Although it was clear that former President Trump would be the No. 1 choice, Donald Trump did have contenders. Nikki Haley was one such politician who got far in the competition but her followers still do not support Trump.

It is a fact that small groups are now choosing who will be the candidates of the two parties. That means the electorate gets to choose between “two old white men neither of whom they like” for their president.

MK: Since Obama’s first election in 2008 when there was a contest for who would get the nomination, in 15 years since then, there has not been a contest even for the nomination for candidacy – it’s been Obama, then his vice president Joe Biden, and Jo Biden’s vice president.

ND: Joe Biden resisted Hillary being the candidate of the Democratic Party, and as it happened, she lost.

Their resistance and their struggle to be the candidate was all behind-the-scenes in the Democratic Party. In all three of the attempts that Trump has made, except the one where he was the President, there has been some kind of contest in the Republican Party.

Democracy has now become a kind of mantra, it’s an elite ruling system, and it’s the elite which talks about saving democracy, even though democracy means a lot of different things to many countries.

MK: Internationally, how is it playing out, especially in Europe which has completely aligned itself with the U.S on Russia, Israel, China

ND: Europe, like the other parts of the world, doesn’t have a vote on who becomes president of the United States of America, but they do have preferences. For months now, we have been hearing including from the leaderships in Europe, about how afraid they are that former President Trump gets re-elected. It’s quite remarkable that in the recent meeting of NATO in Washington, a lot of talk was about Trump-proofing NATO in the context of Ukraine. And so Europe has already committed over $40 billion in aid to Ukraine in the coming year.

It is unusual for European leaders to be so frank about their fears and concerns. It shows the depth of their dependence on the U.S. Europe is feeling pressure at the moment.

They see China as its biggest market but also as a challenge on some issues. However they are unable to resist American pressure on a lot of issues pertaining to China. Similarly with Russia, you can see the German economy is being devastated by refusing to take moderately-priced Russian gas, again under pressure from the US over the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

At the same time, there is fear of Russia, some of it coming on the back of NATO and the European Union taking those kinds of positions. But its extraordinary how frankly European leaders are speaking at this moment about their concern of the re-election of former President Donald Trump which at the moment seems likely because he is ahead in all the polls. He was ahead of President Biden and ahead of probable nominee Kamala Harris.

MK: One of the ironies of this election – there are so many important elections this year, in Europe, in the US, in India – is that with the pick of JD Vance as Trump’s Vice President, there is at last one prominent US politician who is the same age as the many youthful politicians in Europe.

ND: It is interesting. Rishi Sunak from the U.K. is just over 40 years old. The prime minister of France who has not yet resigned, Gabriel Attal, is under forty. The person from the right-wing party who hopes to be the prime minister, Jordan Bardella, is under thirty. In many European countries, Prime Ministers, and political leaders, are in their fifties and there is nobody we know of who is 70-plus.

In fact, there have been some jokes about how the U.S. is becoming like the former Soviet Union where all the leaders were really old and doddering, and had to be supported even as they walked. Like President Brezhnev, many years ago.

MK: Is this turmoil giving more space to the alternate world order? The dollar’s domination is being challenged seriously, with chaos in the U.S., and wars everywhere, BRICS looks like a good comparison with the G7, Russia and China are forming a strong partnership and pole.

ND: There’s no question that there’s been a major churn. The period between the dissolution Soviet Union and today, 20 years of unipolar domination of the U.S. has certainly eroded. In those years, the U.S. was once strong enough to influence Russia and China for what it wanted to do in the U.N Security Council. But today, there are wars everywhere, and the US has not been able to steer them or have some form of closure. Look at Ukraine, the war has stretched on for years now. Look at Gaza, it is still able to resist the Israeli onslaught, nine months on.

The U.S. has now taken recourse to two things. One is supplying weapons, which is very profitable to its companies, and the second is imposing sanctions. This has spin-off implications. For instance there have been sanctions for more than 40 years on Iran.

So, it’s not surprising if Iran then collaborates with countries like China and Russia which are resisting U.S. domination. Now, Iran stands accused of supplying drones to Russia. Most importantly, there have been financial sanctions, the kicking of Russia out of the SWIFT system, and trying to prevent ships that can get insurance to supply Russian oil and gas to buyers like China and India. A lot of countries including the Gulf, rich in resources, and have been dependent on the US for their sense of security, they have begun to trade in the Yuan, but even some other countries including it is rumoured, India, use the Yuan to pay Russia for oil.

The second is G2G trade, which is a little more of the barter system, but you don’t use the dollar to make payments for what you purchase from Russia or what Russia purchases from other countries. And then there are other countries whose banks are managing to evade U.S. sanctions like Turkish banks and for quite some time, even the UAE banks. So Russia is not only managing to sell its oil, even if it is at a lower rate, but its economy seems to be doing better than most European economies.

The power of the U.S which to a very large extent, is vested on the dollar because it’s the currency for all trade, where price discovery for all transactions, for minerals, is no longer the only currency where these transactions are taking place. Because Japan and Europe and even Switzerland are being obliged to follow the Americans in their sanctions, the Euro has not been a gainer, nor has there been much trade even in the Japanese yen.

Neelam Deo is co-founder, Gateway House.

Manjeet Kripalani is Executive Director and co-founder, Gateway House.

Podcast produced by Charuta Ghadyalpatil.

This podcast was exclusively recorded for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can explore more exclusive content here.

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