Produced by Khushi Desai.
Transcript
Manjeet Kripalani :
Hello, this is Manjeet Kripalani from Gateway House, and we welcome you most cordially to the first edition of our monthly podcast Unfolding Geopolitics. We have with us the Ambassador Neelam Deo, also co-founder of Gateway House, and she has long experience in Africa, and the United States, she can see the first world and the third world and the middle world together. So we’re going to ask her a series of questions, because it’s been quite a remarkable time in world affairs. And I’m going to start right away, jump into this right away, Neelam most welcome. And let’s start with asking you this, it really has been a remarkable time in the world, for the world and for India, particularly over the last few months, the BRICS summit and the expansion to coups in Niger, and now in Gabon, India the on the moon, India winning chess and javelin. What do you make of it?
Amb. Neelam Deo :
Well, first of all, I want to say, I was as thrilled as everybody else, over the moon landing on the South Side of the Moon, brilliant of ISRO. And I, it was just a real special moment, I think, for everybody, you know, the chess and the javelin, were fantastic for just showing the putting before the whole world actually, how calm and normal, our representatives were. I mean, Praggnanandhaa is a teenager, still and he went all the way to a tiebreaker with the world champion. For Neeraj to come out with a gold medal, in the javelin throw, I think it’s, it’s really inspiring. And it’s also a kind of recognition of all the changes that have been happening, and all the good things that have been happening in India now. So they’re the credit goes to, to everybody connected with ISRO, and with sport and with chess.
But on the coups, I just want to very briefly say, it’s very important to note that these are mainly Francophone African countries, countries from which France had nominally given independence, so to speak, but never gone away, it continued to act as an overlord. It continued to exploit resources, of course, but it also continued to exploit them in a very colonial way. It kept up military bases in many of these countries. And even if it didn’t have a base of the old style, it still had 1000-1500 of its own military personnel, posted in or near the capital cities. And it continued to dictate what the ruling elite in these countries could do. The second feature I really think is very important is that everybody, denigrates the change that takes place when there is a coup in Niger, or in Gabon, and it’s called, it’s referred to as a military coup, as if there was any other way that change can come in a country where like Gabon, 60 years, the father and son have ruled that country, they, the only an armed force can possibly displace a ruling elite of that nature, which continues to have the support of the former colonial power. So I think we must understand that people have been seeking change in these countries for decades. And there is only one way to have that change happen. And that is if the military decides to displace the ruling elite. So I think that there will certainly be problems that follow. There will certainly be maybe violence, maybe chaos, all of those things. But that is, as if we could argue that there isn’t chaos there at the moment where the vast majority, 99% of the population is completely dispossessed, and there are pretend elections.
So to come back to the BRICS summit in South Africa, I think, first of all, it’s we have to take note of the churlishness with which the Western press has commented on the lead up to this summit, as well as on the expansion, which became the biggest talking point out of this summit. I would say that this summit was very good for Africa. It was well handled by the South African hosts. There was little for people to cop about, in the process, the way they managed the conference. So it was good for Africa. It was also, in many ways, I think, as far as we’re concerned, for India good, because while it was, it became obvious that China had pushed for the expansion, Russia had supported that expansion, South Africa had assisted the expansion procedurally. But the fact is that all the commentary both Western and in our countries, noted how manipulative the process was how the Chinese and to some extent the Russians had pushed for this expansion for their own reasons. They wanted a bigger bridge, so that they could say they had more countries supporting them, they could say that they were not isolated, as both China and Russia feel that they are being isolated by Western countries. So yes, that was seen. But it was also noted by countries in the South, by countries who are existing members, like Brazil, for instance and it was also probably noted by the countries that came in. Now, the specifics of this expansion, the countries that came in, I think, all good for India, which in any case decided that we would make the best of the situation that had arrived that had transpired. Saudi Arabia and UAE, our strategic partners, they are also extremely important for us from the economic point of view, investment into India, they serve as magnets for our professional and labours going into these countries, the remittances are important for our balance of payments situation. And this is our immediate neighbourhood, these are not SARC countries, but they are our neighbours historically, and culturally. And the question of Iran, which can certainly be described as anti-Western, even though Saudi UAE, all the other countries have very close relations with the United States and with some of the European partners, I think Iran’s inclusion is interesting, it will play out in interesting ways. And for India, certainly, the fact that there has already been some movement on the Chabahar port after its inclusion in BRICS. And that there can be a revival of the North-South corridor, which certainly Russia will support strongly. And we would like to see happen.
Afghanistan may be going through a particularly difficult time in its own evolution. But you know, nothing lasts forever. And governments in Afghanistan will either change, or this government will learn to treat its own people, especially the women’s issue in more reasonable and responsible ways. So I would say yes, the expansion is good. But we can see that it was random, we can see that it was a rushed process. I mean, you include Ethiopia, which is going through a very difficult time with internal strife. But Indonesia is not there or Bangladesh, big, important countries and economically vibrant countries. So we’ll see what happens in the next rounds of expansion.
Manjeet Kripalani :
So Neelam, you’re right. I understand that. Can you tell us specifically why Bangladesh was not included?
Amb. Neelam Deo :
I can’t.
Manjeet Kripalani :
I understand that. I understand that Bangladesh was not included, because China insisted that if Bangladesh came on, then Pakistan would have to come on. And that was not acceptable to India.
Amb. Neelam Deo :
So I’m not sure I don’t think Pakistan is even an applicant at this moment. But normally, that is how China behaves, that if India or any other country friendly with India comes in, it wants to bring in Pakistan. But I’m glad that other members of BRICS did not go along with the Chinese on this. Because Pakistan can only be a liability, it will stymie the functioning of the organisation, as it stymies the functioning of any organisation into which it has been included. It also fails to act in a responsible way on terrorism and that cannot be acceptable to anybody or it should not be acceptable.
Manjeet Kripalani :
It should not be part of the groupings. That is actually seeking a more geopolitical and strategic and economic positioning I think in the world. And so when people look at BRICS as being anti-Western, you know, anti-U.S., what are you thinking? I know you have a view on it?
Amb. Neelam Deo :
You know, I think that the West is so used to unanimity of view in institutions like the G7, or NATO, for example, that it cannot probably accept, maybe it doesn’t even understand that there can be groupings coming together, where there are differences, there are important differences on various issues. While there is a coincidence of views on some things, so, for instance, India and China, we have differences on a range of issues, but then there are issues, and we work harmoniously in the New Development Bank or, you know, on climate issues in the past, we have worked together. So I think that the West has to understand that there is more than one way for countries to act, it’s the same problem that they have with, ‘Are you an ally or not an ally’. So, India is not an ally. But I think the United States has made great progress in understanding that there can be very fruitful relationships without calling them alliances.
Manjeet Kripalani :
And so, BRICS is not necessarily anti Western, is it? Or is it a, is it countries like India, where they create a balance?
Amb. Neelam Deo :
I think that we have to look at an institution like BRICS, as non western. So there are certainly efforts and aspirations among the members of BRICS to be able to influence the existing multilateral framework in numerous areas, financial, particularly as that has been much in the news recently, but it is not anti Western. And certainly, countries even like Saudi Arabia, and UAE, will bring in a balance in the relationship with the United States, as India would like to have good, excellent, we have, our relationship with the United States has transformed. At the same time, of course, we have very difficult relations with China at the moment. But we want to sustain what has been a very fruitful and harmonious relationship with Russia for a very long time. And there will be similar sentiments, among other members of BRICS.
Manjeet Kripalani :
Do you think this was all in all the seven come together in two months? Really? Does it have anything? Is it just some kind of coincidence? Or is it, You know, in terms of India being the president of G20? Has it been able to put into motion certain ideas, and thoughts that maybe have given others a chance to think differently?
Amb. Neelam Deo :
So I think there is a momentum for change. I think there’s no question that there is a parity between countries, there are changes in the relative parities, the United States remains the largest and most powerful country, but it is not as powerful by multiples over other countries like China, or like middle powers like India, or others, as it used to be with reference to its Western allies after the Second World War. Today, it recognises the importance and the value of good relations with countries that are dynamic, that are moving, growing quickly economically, and that are looking for change. Because by trying to be part of the change, we’re not trying to overturn the whole international system. The Chinese may want to overturn big parts of it, even though they have been beneficiaries, we would like to influence the changes that are taking place.
Manjeet Kripalani :
That’s a good explanation. And lastly, very quickly, so we can bring it all together old world order versus the New World Order.
Amb. Neelam Deo :
So again, I have to, I say this all the time. But you know, change is a process. It’s not a one off. It’s not like one day, we’re going to wake up and be in a new world order. What is happening is a lot of new ideas coming in ways to make the financial architecture, global financial architecture, play more to the interests of Developing countries. How to do it? Jamaica came up with such good ideas on this. So I think we have to, we have to understand that especially African countries, many of which as we see from the coups taking place in Francophone Africa, are now much more comfortable with putting forth their own thinking and their own demands. They don’t need spokespeople. You know, there’s all this talk about is China the spokesman for the Global South? Or is India? No, no, no, the Africans can speak for themselves; the global south can speak very well for itself. But it does help if other countries are coming around and trying to make this a wider movement. So I think we are in a moment, in a period of transition, we hope that this transition will go in directions, which will be more fair, especially to Developing countries. And this is especially true of things like the effort on climate change, etc. And that this will be an order, which is built by everyone together, rather than imposed by the victors of the Second World War.
Manjeet Kripalani :
Thank you Neelam very much. And we’ll see you for the next edition of Unfolding Geopolitics.
Amb. Neelam Deo :
Thank you.
Manjeet Kripalani :
Thank you.
Neelam Deo is co-founder, Gateway House and former ambassador to Ivory Coast with concurrent accreditation to Niger, Guinea, and Sierra Leone.
Manjeet Kripalani is Executive Director, Gateway House.
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