The bullets that echoed in the Baisaran Valley in Pahalgam, killing 25 Indians and one Nepali citizen on April 22, shook India out of its slumber. The executions, perpetrated and claimed by the Resistance Front, an offshoot of Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba, brought back memories of the Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019) attacks. India’s response — surgical strikes on terrorist camps after the former, and air strikes on terrorist installations near Balakot after the latter — seemed as if they brought down the levels of terrorism. But Pakistani terrorism reared its ugly head again.
There are two reasons for this: One, if the terrorist movement is allowed to die down, it will be very difficult to restart it. Two, it is a low-cost option for Pakistan to keep India on the boil as a part of the proxy militancy Operation Tupac conceived by General Ziaul Haq in 1988.
Over the years, an olive branch has been extended by successive Prime Ministers of India, starting from the late I K Gujral to Narendra Modi, but every time the relationship appeared to be improving, it has always been brought back to the brink by the deep state of Pakistan. India has practised restraint on many occasions, including after the attack on its Parliament in 2001 and the Mumbai attacks of November 26, 2008. So, the actions of the Government of India turned a page when the Indian army carried out a surgical strike in 2016 and an airstrike in 2019.
The Baisaran Valley killings took the violence up a notch by singling out Hindu men and executing them in front of their family members and children. In this, Pakistan has invited trouble upon itself. Gloating that it is protected by its nuclear weapons and not having a “no first use” policy, it is convinced of its “no harm comes our way” doctrine. This time, Pakistan has overplayed its hand. Immediately after April 22, Pakistan began ceasefire violations in the form of small arms fire along the Line of Control, and India responded in a calibrated manner.
In India, there was the expectation of retribution for the civilian killings. India’s initial actions were in the domain of diplomacy and economy, key amongst them putting in abeyance the Indus Waters Treaty. While it may not be possible to hold the waters of the Western rivers of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab fully within India, even variations in the timing and the quantum of the release of water will have devastating effects on Pakistan. This caused convulsions, with Pakistani generals saying they considered it an act of war by India. After these preliminary actions, the hard response to Pahalgam was awaited. External balancing took some time, and several countries expressed their support for India.
Two weeks after Baisaran, on the night of May 6-7, India struck nine terrorist installations – four in Pakistan and five in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. Pakistan has admitted to 26 dead and 42 wounded. India neither targeted civilian nor armed forces installations in Pakistan. The operation, named Operation Sindoor, was brilliant branding and messaging from India: Retribution for the brutal removal of the sacred vermilion worn by every Hindu married woman on her forehead.
By its measures and well-calculated action, India has conveyed three messages: First, to Pakistan, that if it continues to support terrorism, it will have to bear the consequences. Second, to the terrorists, Bharat will inflict the same pain on them, if not more, than they inflict on Indian citizens. Third, to the world, Bharat is resolute in responding to terrorism in a “measured, non-escalatory, proportionate, and responsible” manner.
Pakistan’s reaction to Operation Sindoor is on expected lines. Its Inter-Services Public Relations has been active on the cognitive front by spreading rumours and misinformation and making its senior officers available to all foreign media for narrative-setting.
India needs to prepare for multiple misadventures by Pakistan. The Indian armed forces are ready. There could be pressure from Pakistan’s new ally Bangladesh, which is waiting in the wings to foment trouble in India’s Northeast. Islamabad’s old ally, China, has said that India’s actions are regrettable and has rendered diplomatic support to its “all-weather friend.” India’s new friend, America, says it is monitoring the situation and hopes this ends quickly. Its statement seems to be open-ended and leaves room for interpretation. Meanwhile, India is devising a two-fold response – citizen preparedness, with mock drills for civil defence, a step in the right direction, and speedily readying a strategy to counter the Pakistani public relations machine.
Lt Gen S L Narasimhan is the Adjunct Distinguished Fellow for China and National Security Studies at Gateway House.
This article was first published in The Indian Express.