‘Modi will be firm on Indian interests’

With 282 seats the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party has won a decisive mandate in the recent Lok Sabha elections. Now India and the world are waiting for Modi to outline his key economic and foreign policy priorities. In an interview with Gateway House’s Co-founder and Executive Director Manjeet Kripalani, Professor M.D. Nalapat, Director, Department of Geopolitics, Manipal University says that as Prime Minister, Narendra Modi will be pragmatic in his dealings with the U.S. and China and will focus on building good relations with countries in Asia. He also believes that Germany will be the first country from the NATO to reach out to Prime Minister Modi.

Q. Looking at Narendra Modi’s past and the way he has conducted himself in his external engagement, what do you think India’s foreign policy will be like in the Modi era?

Narendra Modi doesn’t open himself up to people so it is difficult to come to an understanding of what his views are. Despite that caveat my view is that he can transform the Indian economy and India can become a middle-income country under his watch in the next 15-20 years. So his focus is going to be economics. Every other aspect is going to be subordinated to 12% growth – or in the view of the more optimistic, 15% growth. I believe the Indian economy is capable of the latter given its vibrant population and enormous location advantages. My view is that Narendra Modi could become to India what Deng Xiaoping was to China. Xiaoping was the creator of the Chinese economic miracle.

Q. What are the lessons he has learnt while he was in China that he can adapt for India?

The perception that he leans towards China is completely wrong. In China he was very firm on Indian interests – especially the Chinese assistance to the Pakistani nuclear and missile program and the Pakistani army. He was very firm that the border issue needs to be settled in a way that creates overall tranquility. India cannot be expected to make the compromises that were made during the era of Nehru and his successor.

The Chinese saw Modi as someone who is going to play a very important role in the future, someone they have to reach out to. Modi is close to no country except India. He would look at China from the prism of Indian interests.

Q. A key bilateral that has been sinking is with the U.S. How do you think he is going to revive this relationship?

The reality is that India and the U.S have got to be close friends. The NATO member states will be competing among themselves to salvage the mistake they made by ignoring Modi in the belief that this public humiliation will affect his chances in the elections. Riots have taken places in so many states in India but Modi is the only Chief Minister against whom there was a visa prohibition. However he is a pragmatic individual with a very long-term view of Indian interests. He is not negative to any country in the world.

My guess is that Germany will be the first country from NATO to reach out and invite Modi. There is a BRICS summit in Brazil in June and if he makes a stopover in Berlin, it will be the first country in Europe that he would visit as PM.

Q. What do you expect Modi’s policy towards the U.S. is likely to be? There are a lot of investors putting money in North America and the U.S. is a very attractive market.

Modi will not only deal with the administration, the White House and other departments in the U.S. State Department- many of whom are hostile towards him – but will go straight to American business, the Indian American community and the opposition. He will be sensible and establish a direct relationship with a huge cross- section of the American society. If successful, a momentum will be created that will make it very difficult for Barack Obama, John Kerry and the others to continue with their anti-Modi policy.

Q. People say that Modi will follow a muscular policy towards neighbors like Pakistan and Bangladesh.

We are sitting on a tinderbox in South Asia because nobody is afraid of us. I.K Gujral was soft on Pakistan, but he is a hawk compared to Manmohan Singh. The fencing on the India-Pakistan border is way inside the Indian territory. In effect, a lot of the Indian territory has gone to Pakistan. In the case of China, the Indian soldiers patrol a few kilometers inside the Line of Patrol (LOP), when they should be on the LOP. Our troops are not allowed to go up to the LOP. Modi will not provoke Pakistan or China but will be firm on Indian Interests.

Q. How do you think Modi will engage with our old friend, Russia?

Russia is a major global player and it’s been a good friend to India. They have helped us become a technological power right from 1960s and helped us in many vetoes in the Security Council. In the last 20 years, the India-Russia relationship has flourished significantly, especially on the commercial side.

Q. The new friend is Japan which is making many overtures to India. We need each other, particularly in Asia. Have you heard Modi talk about Japan or Japanese companies in Gujarat?

The Japanese have given Modi much more respect compared to the reception he received in Beijing. There will be a flowering of the relationship under Modi. He understands that Japan can be a big technological partner. I am very optimistic that a Shinzo Abe-Modi meeting will be a meeting of hearts and strategic interests.

You are going to see a Modi foreign policy that has the fundamental value of creating harmony in Asia, having good relations with key Asian powers and he is going to work very hard.

You can watch the full interview here.

Dr. Madhav Nalapat holds a UNESCO Peace Chair and is also Senior Associate of the National Institute of Advanced Studies. He is a Board Member of the India-China-America Institute and an Associate of the United Services Institution of India.

Manjeet Kripalani is Executive Director, Gateway House

This interview was exclusively conducted for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can read more exclusive content here.

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