“We are already playing a major role at the international level, like the UN where India is a non-permanent member. We have been active in the Arab world. In the geopolitical world India has been playing a major role,” explains Ambassador Neelam Deo, Director Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. She is dismissive of any military aspects to secure crude supplies. “There is only so much that you can do. India is neither a major producer nor consumer of oil. We need to invest more in oil and gas exploration in our own country,” Deo concludes.
“We need reforms in the Oil and Gas sector as we are currently not attracting enough foreign investment in the sector, especially in the exploratory segment,” says Chauhan of Angel Broking.
“There could be a very wide band in the prices of crude oil in CY12, because of the political turmoil. The price of crude may go up to 200 dollars per barrel, from the current levels, if Iran is attacked,” says Ambassador Neelam Deo, Director Gateway House, an Indian Council on Global Relations. Also, even though Syria is a not really an oil producing country if there is destabilisation in that country, then it has the possibility of affecting oil prices.
“However, if there is no military attack then I feel that crude would be in the 115 to 130 dollars per barrel price band in the CY12 period,” says Deo. Libya has stabilised, so that is a plus and as long as Libya does not destabilise prices should be in a range.
“The Wild Card in the scenario is Yemen. Geographically this country shares a long border with Saudi Arabia which is a key producer of oil,” Deo continues. Thus any further instability in that country may affect crude prices. Also it is has an entry presence on the Red Sea, a key conduit of oil.
So even though most analysts feel that crude may stabilise at current prices, there is even a possibility of downside from current levels. “There may be a downward spiral in crude prices if global growth slows down,” explains Deo.