India’s response to terrorist attacks in Kashmir has often been a mix of diplomatic and economic actions, and occasionally military. This time, immediately after the Baisaran massacre, India announced five actions, all in the political and diplomatic domain. They are: the Indus Water Treaty (1960) is held in abeyance; the army, navy and air attaches of Pakistan in its High Commission in Delhi are declared persona non grata; the visas issued to Pakistani nationals are revoked with immediate effect and visas issued under SAARC Exemption Scheme are also cancelled; reduction of diplomatic staff in the Indian High Commission in Islamabad; and closing of the Attari crossing with immediate effect.
As in the cases of Uri and Pulwama, this time also there is an expectation that India will resort to a military option. The options may vary from trans Line-of-Control operations, and air strikes like Balakot and beyond. But China has an all-weather friendship with Pakistan.
A look into the past will give us an indication of the likely support that China can give to Pakistan in the present. During the 1965 operations, China applied pressure on India by asking it to remove some military structures on the Sikkim border. It also moved some troops to the border. These actions ensured that Indian troops remained tied down and did not move towards the western front. During the 1971 Indo-Pak war, China gave diplomatic support to Pakistan. There was, however, no movement of troops barring a few patrols on the border.
In both these wars, China’s position in the international relations played a major role. While in 1965, China was not a major player in the international arena, by 1971, it was becoming increasingly clear that China was needed by the west to contain the USSR. This was an important aspect in how China acted during the 1971 war. In 1999, China did not give any support to Pakistan.
Cutting to the present, China seems to have opened several fronts. South China Sea and Taiwan figure high on its list. Its relationship with the US is still evolving after President Donald Trump came back to power and the relations with the European Union are no better after it declared China as a systemic rival. China’s relations with Russia continue to remain good. India-China relations, though going through a thaw after the October 2024 agreement, have been slow on the mend.
It is in this scenario that one has to consider what assistance China can give Pakistan in case of military action by India. The state of play on the India-China border will also have a major implication on this.
China has been building infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) for a while now. The pace of that has increased post the Galwan incident of 2020. In addition to a number of roads being built opposite eastern Ladakh, a new highway named G 695 is also in the works. G 695 runs closer to the LAC than the Western Highway and is very useful to the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) for lateral movement of troops.
China has been upgrading the airfields in Tibet and building heliports and helipads. There has been an increase in the billeting capability of the PLA. Though the first step of disengagement has been completed, the next step of de-escalation, which should pull back additional troops that came into eastern Ladakh, is nowhere in sight.
China’s reaction to the Baisaran incident has been mixed. The Chinese foreign office spokesperson and its ambassador to India said that China condemned the terror attack and all forms of terrorism. It may lend support to Pakistan on any decisions being taken in the UN which is not in Pakistan’s interest. However, in the conversation between Foreign ministers of China and Pakistan, it seems that China called for a “swift and fair investigation”, implying thereby it is in support of Pakistan. It is also likely to share intelligence on Indian reaction to the incident, both civil and military. Moreover, China has rushed PL 15 missiles to Pakistan, which can be used in JF 17 Block III aircraft. These are long-range air-to-air missiles that are claimed to be a counter to the Rafale aircraft of the Indian Air Force.
There may be other military equipment that China may give to Pakistan. It may move troops closer to the LAC so that some Indian troops are retained away from the western front. However, China is unlikely to physically intervene on behalf of Pakistan since that will affect its other priorities.
The international community’s reactions to Pahalgam massacre have mostly been in support of India. The US, the EU, Russia, Israel, Iraq, Qatar, Jordan, the UAE, Sri Lanka, Italy, Nepal, Bhutan and League of Arab Nations have all expressed support to India.
However, this is a fight in which India has to do the heavy-lifting. And all options are on the table, as the government has said.
Lt Gen S L Narasimhan is the Adjunct Distinguished Fellow for China and National Security Studies at Gateway House.
This article was first published in The Week.