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Two important conclaves held in December 2024 - a Politbureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference – set the tone for China’s economic focus in 2025. The economy needs a resurgence, given the domestic environment of low spending and the external threat of high tariffs – the outcome of swapping development for security. In 2025, China’s mandarins will try and find a balance between the two.
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There is much discussion these days on the world order and the continuation or demise of the current format. To understand why this powerful agglomeration of states and rules is now being questioned, it is necessary to understand the role of China, its co-option of the institutions and rules of the world order, and the parallel order it is creating centred around itself.
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Holding one of the G20 meetings in Jammu and Kashmir is a bold, audacious and timely move. It is possible because of the ceasefire along the Line of Control which has been holding since February 25, 2021. The new geopolitical setting offers India an opportunity to diplomatically disdain the Chinese, camping not too far away in the un-demarcated border areas with India.
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Globalisation has resulted in the interdependence of nations through the largely unimpeded transmission of investment capital and information, and integrated business operations. The leading beneficiaries have been the global 1%, and China. While it is too late and not possible to roll back an interconnected world order, globalization as we know it will recede, as will China’s standing in the world.