Multipolarity is gaining in salience around the world. It has been on the agenda of the developing countries since 1955 when the Asian-African conference in Bandung[1], Indonesia was held. As that 70th anniversary approaches on April 18, the relevance of its equal power distribution concept, is being acknowledged even by the unipolarists, reflecting an understanding of a world in profound transition. Within the early days of his administration, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, called unipolarity “an anomaly”[2] and “product of the end of the Cold War.” He also signaled that the world was “going to reach back to a point where you had multi-great powers in different parts of the planet.”
These words found some resonance in India with the External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar highlighting that the move to multipolarity “is something that suits India”[3] and “requires greater collaboration.” However, the Europeans have not found much meaning in it, with the Munich Security Conference Report 2025 deliberately misunderstanding the term and swapping multipolar for ‘multipolarised’ i.e. a divided world.[4]
Whichever way it’s viewed, there is clearly a dramatic shift from how the world organised itself over the past 80 years (1945–2025) when managing inter-state relations among great powers, middle powers, and the rest, followed a rule book. Unipolarity and bipolarity grew out of NATO in 1949 and the Warsaw Pact in 1955, with the U.S. and the Soviet Union leading two rival camps of formidable political, economic, military, and nuclear capabilities. However, the idea of bipolarity was put on pause after the Soviet Union lost the Cold War in 1991 to the U.S.-led Western bloc, making the U.S. the unchallenged unipole. Many experts announced America’s multipolar moment would last indefinitely, but this belief was put to rest within a decade with the 9/11 attacks and China joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) with U.S. support.
Much to its surprise, the world witnessed a new bipolarity, in the gradual rise of China – one of the original participants in the Bandung Conference. In the first decade of the 21st century, under the hood of ‘globalisation’ where the flow of goods, investment and people led to an economic interdependence[5], China took political and strategic steps to position itself as the second pole, in competition with the U.S. By 2013, China’s foreign policy led by its Belt & Road Initiative had found friends in unexpected places, from South America to Africa and Eastern Europe. Several different power poles[6] apart from China, began to emerge in strength, from Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico to Indonesia, as also a few powerful regional groupings, such as the EU, ASEAN, and African Union. The four successive G20 presidencies held by developing countries starting from 2022, and the equal membership given to the AU, diluted the G7 dominance in the global order. Multipolarity had expanded its writ.
The ongoing Trump Presidency has turned accepted definitions upside down. Interstate relationships have been changing at an unbelievably rapid rate, and none more than that of NATO, especially the U.S.-Europe partnership on account of Trump opening direct negotiations with Moscow to end the Ukraine conflict. The U.S. moved from being their most significant strategic partner to a mere mediator. Trump is confident he can do business with President Putin, his argument basic and straightforward: ‘If I thought Putin wouldn’t keep a deal, why would I conclude one with him?’ Even, the venue of a G7 mediation venue has changed and moved to West Asia[7], with Saudi Arabia playing a lead role as host.
Thus, in this newly emerging multipolar world, are nations expected to rely on a leader’s word rather than on solid interstate arrangements? And consequently, are countries now expected to look after their own interests?
However they are understood, such statements knock aside the ‘rules-based order,’ where respect for territorial integrity or compliance with international law can be suspended. The U.S. President’s statements on integrating Canada as the 51st state, buying Greenland, taking over the Panama Canal and the ‘Riviera plan’ for Gaza, have caused new turbulence, whose outcome remains to be seen. The precise treatment of China and the emergence of a new U.S.-China equation will shape the new multipolarity.
Europe has been watching, and countries like Germany are seeking to ally themselves with the pioneers of Bandung, some of which are now Emerging Middle Powers. These countries embody the pragmatism present in multipolarity and in their partnerships and agreements, differing from the G7-style ‘do-or-die’ alliances with each other.
An example of this is India stating it has no interest in de-dollarization as a lot of problems in South Asia are due to the lack of availability of dollar. As Jaishankar said, “Just because there is multipolarity, it does not have to translate into currency multipolarity.”
The consequence of the ongoing polycrises is visible and felt in capitals around the world. New definitions of interstate relations, new behaviours and doctrines are emerging. India will do well to use this moment to translate its multipolar intentions into reality by taking the lead to write and practice some of the new, equitable rules that reflect the Bandung Principles in this emerging multipolar world.
Manjeet Kripalani is Executive Director, Gateway House.
Rajiv Bhatia is the Distinguished Fellow for Foreign Policy Studies, and a former ambassador.
A version of this article was published in The Indian Express.
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References:
[1] “Bandung Principles.” Non-Aligned Movement. Accessed April 11, 2025. https://nam.go.ug/bandung-principles.
[2] “Secretary Marco Rubio with Megyn Kelly of The Megyn Kelly Show (Interview).” U.S. Department of State, January 30, 2025. https://www.state.gov/secretary-marco-rubio-with-megyn-kelly-of-the-megyn-kelly-show/.
[3] “India’s EAM S. Jaishankar speaks at Chatham House in London” Diya TV, March 05, 2025. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsJURxuJcPM
[4] “Munich Security Report 2025: Multipolarization.” Multipolarization – Munich Security Conference, February 2025. https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2025/. “Is the world really entering an era defined by multipolarity? What are the (potential) poles of such an order? How polarized are they? What are the implications of a multipolarized order? And how can the international community manage multipolarization?”
[5] Kolb, Melina. “What Is Globalization?” Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 29, 2019. https://www.piie.com/microsites/globalization/what-is-globalization.
[6] Mahbubani, Kishore. “The West and the Rest.” The National Interest, no. 28 (1992): 3–12. http://www.jstor.org/stable/42896786.
[7] Aceves, Mauricio D. “Riyadh and the New Halls of Mediation.” Gateway House, March 13, 2025. https://www.gatewayhouse.in/riyadh-and-the-new-halls-of-mediation/.