Mohamed Morsi’s election as Egypt’s first freely elected President with 51.73 % of the vote, called a ‘historic moment’ by the British Foreign Secretary Hague and a ‘milestone’ by the White House, was somewhat marred by the impression that the delay in its announcement was due to a last-minute trade-off between the powerful armed forces and the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsi in his victory speech has emphasised an inclusive leadership and has attempted to reach out to the disillusioned secular, liberal and minority groups.
He does so knowing that the powerful armed forces have already diluted the presidential powers, dissolved the Brotherhood-dominated parliament, given itself legislative authority to oversee legislation, control on the budget and to intervene in the constitution-making exercise. As he assumes the Presidency on 30 June, in the initial period at least, outcomes may well be determined by a series of bargains with the armed forces since there is neither a parliament nor a constitution, or a clear statement of his powers.
President-elect Morsi now faces the herculean task of cleaning up the Aegean stables of cronyism, rampant corruption, a culture of fear and opaque governance and of simultaneously establishing his credentials with a deeply polarised populace yearning for a return to stability, normalcy and prosperity.
In trying to meet aspirations of the Egyptian people he will have to steer a fine line between the two powerful entities in the country: the SACF – Supreme Council of the Armed Forces – and his own Brotherhood’s FJP- Freedom and Justice Party. We can already see the battle-lines being drawn between the two entities.
Alarmed by the way the ruling Turkish AKP – Justice and Development Party – has constitutionally eviscerated the all-powerful Turkish Army ever since its ascent to power in 2002, the SACF’s pre-emptive action is intended to ensure that there is no repeat of the Turkish scenario in Cairo. The SACF have decreed that the next parliamentary elections will be held one month after a Constitution is approved in a referendum.
Continuing their political power in the country will also ensure that the armed forces’ prolific power in major sectors in the economy is not touched. This again is a leaf out of the Turkish Army’s book and a common feature in most Arab ‘democracies.’ The Army has squandered the tremendous goodwill it collected in February 2011 by throwing its weight behind the popular protestors. Its pre-emptive political action will no doubt give comfort to nearly half the electorate which abstained or did not vote for Morsi, yet it detracts from the ‘democracy’ which the early and spontaneous protest movement had envisioned for the country.
Although President-elect Morsi has resigned from his membership of the FJP there is no getting away from the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood’s capture of the Presidency in the Arab world’s largest country will have a defining influence both in Egypt and in the region. Much will depend on the extent to which the Brotherhood will give space to the secular and liberal sections of Egyptian society and rescind from strict observance of Islamic law, the Sharia, in governance and polity. Its success will determine the shape of the transition in other Arab countries caught up in the Arab awakening.
The Muslim Brotherhood leadership will now expect to shore its power, control the Presidency and corner important legislative and administrative posts. The FJP has on its part projected itself as a moderate Islamic party on the lines of the Turkish AKP and has stated that it will not disturb the largely secular ethos of the country. Much will depend on its pronouncements and actions on preservation of minority rights, women’s rights, freedom of speech and religious freedoms in Egypt. Morsi’s handling of an exceedingly fraught equation will depend on whether secularism and political plurality will survive in Egypt. Having won the battle through ballot, will Muslim Brotherhood also be ready to give it up through the ballot? This question will occupy the Arab world through the coming years.
The major task before Morsi – for which he still has ample power – are the bread and butter of his people facing grinding poverty: reverse the parlous economic situation, improve the stock exchange, revive foreign investor confidence by starting economic reforms, emphasise the creation of jobs, better education and health services, spur industrial and agricultural growth and rejuvenate the tourism sector. It is a heavy agenda which will not allow him to spurn the West.
In external relations he has already announced that the Egypt-Israel peace treaty will be respected which will go down well in Israel and the United States. It is likely that the government’s interest in, and relating to, the Palestinian issue will heighten and the border between Egypt and Gaza, closed during Mubarak’s time, will continue to remain open. In spite of recent contretemps with the U.S. on its democracy promotion initiatives in Egypt, Morsi will have to keep relations with that country on an even keel. The newly set-up National Defence Council will likely have a large say in relations with the U.S. not the least because of the $ 1.3 billion which the armed forces get annually.
India has welcomed the results of the presidential election which has been free, impartial and fair. India’s plural and multi-religious polity which protects minority and women’s rights has much to offer an Egypt in the throes of democratic institution building. It can be expected that the Morsi government will be conservative: while taking guidance from its Islamic roots it will nevertheless have a strong social agenda akin to our ‘inclusive growth’ programs.
It is also likely to stress on a liberal market economy and the small business sector as a way to widely distribute the fruits of economic growth. It presents India a new opportunity to bolster our economic and trade relations. A refreshing example was seen recently: ‘Kirloskar’ and ‘pump’ are used interchangeably in Egypt where Kirloskar pumps have ruled the market for decades. As these events were unfolding the company received yet another order from the local government in Alexandria.
Ambassador Rajendra Abhyankar, a former Indian diplomat, is Chairman, Kunzru Centre for Defence Studies and Research, Pune.
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