India’s merchandise exports for May 2015 have fallen by 20% in dollar value compared to last year—from $28 billion in May 2014 to $22.3 billion—a drop of $5,652 million.
Some see this as a case of falling global demand made worse by India’s infrastructure bottlenecks. But Gateway House’s analysis suggests that this is a misreading of the data. In fact, the trade data is actually more favourable to India as compared to the past. The bulk of the fall in exports is a result of price fluctuations; it is not due to any underlying changes in demand or industrial activity.