Transcript
Raveena Shivashankar (RS): Good morning, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of Unfolding Geopolitics. Today, we have a very special guest, Nina Robinson, who is our visiting fellow from the Council on Foreign Relations, focusing on international affairs. Before joining CFR, Nina worked across multiple U.S. government agencies, including the U.S. Agency for International Development and U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Over the years, she has covered Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Bhutan, and that makes her the perfect guest for today’s conversation. Nina has been with Gateway House for the past five months, and today we will discuss her research project on U.S.-India high school exchange, as well as her views on the India-U.S. FTA and the evolving bilateral relationship. Nina, welcome to our podcast, we’re so happy to have you here.
Nina Robinson (NR): Thank you, Raveena. Of course, it’s so exciting to be here. Yeah, let’s get started.
RS: Nina, you recently completed your five-month visiting fellowship at Gateway House, during which you worked on a research project on U.S.-India high school exchange. Could you tell us what your project focuses on?
NR: Yes, so I’ll give a background on how I decided or landed on this research topic. I’ve had previous government experience working on the U.S.-India relationship. And so, it’s a robust partnership, there’s defence, trade, technology, and education. And while the relationship is strong in its aspects of higher education and professional relationships, I’ve always sort of felt like high school exchanges were out of the discussion. And so I decided to look further into the existing high school exchanges that the U.S. and India have and what we can do to enhance those exchanges. So, with that, I found out through my visit here that there is a U.S.-India high school exchange program, and that’s government-sponsored. It’s the YES program, which was founded in 2005 here in India, and then YES Abroad, which is sort of the corresponding exchange program to the YES program in India. So, the YES Abroad is the program for American students to apply for financing and scholarships to do an academic semester or an entire year here in India, and vice versa with Indian students traveling to the U.S. But with that and the different administration changes, there have been significant impacts to the State Department’s funding for exchange programs, which includes YES and YES Abroad. And so, at the moment, that is our only U.S. government-funded program. And so, with the significant recent cuts, the program is paused, we are at a time where we risk having an exchange program that brings a diverse group of students from both India and the U.S. So, in my report, which is an extensive report, it looks at U.S.-India exchanges, sort of the major challenges with facilitating such exchanges, and then a list of recommendations that can be provided to the U.S. and Indian government, as well as our American and Indian businesses and our non-governmental organisations.
RS: Could you elaborate on how these programs are working and what impact it has given to the Indian students?
NR: Yes. So I’ve had the opportunity to speak with American Field Service (AFS) Intercultural Programs India here, who partners with the U.S. government to facilitate U.S. and Indian academic exchanges. So, as I mentioned, in 2005, they’ve been facilitating exchanges for about 20 years. And so, every year, we have about 30 or so Indian students that go to the U.S. to participate in exchanges, and a lesser number of American students who come here. But for exchange programs, we know that when students travel to other countries, not only is it a great opportunity for school and professional advancement, but there’s also a cultural understanding that is built between two countries. And so, with that, a lot of those, and me being an example of someone who’s participated in study abroad, you develop future leaders who are not only culturally sensitive to other cultures and other countries, but you also produce our future leaders, our future diplomats, and our future business people.
RS: They surely sound of great importance, but you mentioned that there have been some cuts to these programs. What are these cuts, and how is it affecting the programs?
NR: Yes, it has. So, there has been about a 90 to 93 percent cut to U.S. exchange programs. And so, with that, there is currently a pause on the 2026 to 2027 application process for YES and YES Abroad. So that means that we won’t be getting a new cohort of students from either India or the U.S. to participate in these exchange programs. So, unfortunately, if we either continue moving forward with the cuts, or that funding isn’t provided for such exchanges, then we risk that program being eliminated.
RS: You mentioned that in your report you have given some recommendations to improve this program exchange. Could you give any recommendations, maybe one or two recommendations?
NR: Yes, absolutely. So, one of the recommendations that I give is on the visa process. So that would be facilitating the visa process, making it a more seamless experience, and also considering a gratis visa. So, essentially, the gratis visa is that both countries agree to provide visas which would be free of charge. It’s actually something that Germany and India recently did for their short-term programs. And so, I think it would be a good opportunity for the U.S. and India to consider that, at least for our J-1 visas. Our high school students who would only be participating in these programs for a semester or a year, the other thing is, I will say that both India and the U.S. are doing a great job as far as expanding their consulate and consular service centres. So I would just encourage India to continue expanding its consular service centres, which it has inaugurated, I believe about eight. And then the U.S. is also expanding here with its consular centres in India. So I would just encourage that both governments continue to expand and continue to staff up these consular centres so that there’s more mobility between the two countries.
RS: That’s great. We really hope that we work on that recommendation. Well, initially, you talked about the India-U.S. partnership, which expands to trade, defense, and also education. Coming to the trade aspect, the India-U.S. free trade agreement (FTA) is still under negotiation. And we have an ambition to reach $500 billion in bilateral trade by the year 2030. At the same time, India faces 50% of reciprocal tariffs from the U.S. side on several goods. Given this landscape, how do you view the ongoing negotiations? And according to you, when could we expect this to be formalised?
NR: Yes. So, with the FTA between India and the U.S., I would say there is progress, but of course, it’s been a bit slow-moving. But I would say I’m probably not as optimistic that it will happen in the next month or so. But I do think that once a deal is finalised, we can expect to see a drop in the reciprocal tariff rate. After all, the reciprocal tariff rate reached 50 % due to the U.S. sort of wanting India to diversify its oil. But I would say that with, of course, India now purchasing more oil from the U.S., there’s also the Russia-Ukraine peace deal that is also in the mix. And then just also looking at some of the other trade deals that the U.S. has reached with its other partners, we’ve seen where it’s about 15-19%. So, I expect that the 50% will come down significantly.
RS: You mentioned that the negotiations progress has been slow. What are some reasons for this stagnant progress?
NR: Yes. So, I would definitely say just there are probably a few things as far as stagnation. I think it’s definitely on both sides. But I do think that, of course, one being the two leaders being able to sort of come and have a consensus amongst the trade deal. The other thing, one part being the agricultural part of the deal, which I think the U.S. and India are finding a way to agree on that. So I think that is something that also takes a bit of time. And then, of course, as I mentioned, the point of the oil, I would say. But of course, now that that has improved, I would say that was, of course, one of the sticking points in the agreement. And then, of course, just the slam of the tariffs that happened. So there are a few sticking points that I believe, of course, has slowed progress. But I do think that things are moving. And with the new U.S. ambassador to India also coming, I do think that that will sort of speed things up as well.
RS: Tariffs have obviously affected both the countries, India and the U.S. It has affected the U.S. consumers, and it has affected a lot of businesses in India. You mentioned that the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced after the trade agreement will be finalised. But is it possible that the tariffs could come down before a trade agreement?
NR: I’m definitely not that optimistic that it would come down before the trade deal. I will say that there were some—the Trump administration actually made some changes underneath the reciprocal tariffs. So, as we know, there are some goods that are now exempt from the tariffs, but I don’t see it coming down before the trade deal. Unfortunately, I know this definitely adds another layer of pressure. But I do think with that, that that will sort of progress things further, seeing as how it’s still at 50%.
RS: Right. Well, let’s see where the U.S.-India trade agreement really goes. And we are optimistic about it. So, we’ll see.
Since we are recording this episode here in Mumbai and you’ve been here for five months, and you also visited India, I think, last year for a couple of months. So Mumbai is India’s financial capital, and we would like to know your experience here living in a fast-paced city like Mumbai.
We are also very interested to know what your impressions were before arriving and what has changed now. Also, if you could tell us what the U.S. generally perceives of India and how would you compare Mumbai with Delhi, which is the political capital of India?
NR: Yes, absolutely. So I think, Raveena, I’m going to answer this out of order, but I’ll definitely circle back through all the questions. And so this is actually something as far as the U.S., their view. Or I should say, not necessarily the U.S. government, but the U.S. people in their view of India. And the one thing that I would definitely point out is that even the Western or the U.S. media sort of has a bit of a very old view of India. I would say that most of our major newspapers, they usually pick up sort of the very horrific stories. Or the stories that showcase poverty and a lack of development and infrastructure. And so I think that’s the view that most people see. But being here in India and actually being immersed in India, whereas before I’ve had the opportunity to travel for work, it’s always been to Delhi. I will say Delhi is a very, very small fraction of India, it’s very diverse. With me being here in Mumbai, as you said, it’s fast-paced. There are 21 million people here in Mumbai! But even with so many people, things still seem to function, still seem to work. There are a ton of modes of transportation. So, for instance, I was just saying this earlier, I hadn’t really seen much about the development of the coastal road and some of the U.S. news articles. And so being here, I’ve been able to see just how well the coastal road functions. I’ve also been able to be here during the opening of the first underground train station, the Aqualine.
There’s a ton of technology and innovation that’s happening here in Mumbai that I just think that people aren’t aware of, and it’s not being picked up enough.
I’m also very fascinated by the use of e-commerce here. I’ve ordered gym wear, I’ve ordered cough medicine, I’ve ordered food all in under 15 minutes. This is phenomenal, by the way. But these are not the stories that I’ve seen personally in the U.S. and so I think it’s a story that most people aren’t aware of. I think as far as the difference in Delhi, of course, Delhi is known as very similar to D.C., right? Where things, where policy is made. But being here at a foreign policy think tank, I’m also able to see that Mumbai also drives foreign policy as well. I mean, trade is a huge aspect and here we are in the trade hub.
RS: What were the impressions you had before that? And what has changed now?
NR: I’ve always known about the great things that India offers. So I can’t say I had too many. But I will point out just something that was brought up to me by either friends or family or their concerns. Concerns of safety is something that I think people assume about being here in Mumbai, especially as being a woman. Like, for instance, there’s a travel advisory that the U.S. has for traveling as a woman in India. But I’ve been able to walk around in the evenings alone by myself from home to gym, just a 10-minute walk. It is very safe. As far as that’s concerned, ‘God is guest’ in India. I think concerns on safety exists in every country including the U.S. But I think that sometimes those safety concerns are centralised in media. I would say that safety has not been a concern, at least for me, in Mumbai. So I actually felt quite safe.
RS: I really hope that the U.S. media covers these stories and I think when you go back home, you should talk about this side of India.
On a final note, what recommendations would you like to give to both the governments, Indian government and the U.S. government? And how do you see the India-U.S. relationship evolving in the coming years?
NR: Yes. So with this, I will go back to the piece on education. And I think I mentioned before, higher education, professional, the professional relationship between the U.S. and India is astounding. We’ve been doing it since 1950. But the thing is, I would say that as India and the U.S. think about these centres of excellence and these joint campuses and joint programs, that we should look towards high school students. I think sometimes we sort of jump ahead and we miss a very important population, which is our youth. So for us to ensure that both countries, our future leaders, are able to engage, whether it’s in defense and trade or even in AI, it’s important that we start with high school exchanges. It doesn’t have to necessarily be a semester-long or an academic year program. We could simply do short-term programs in STEM. There could be an exchange program between our high school students in areas of STEM. I think both the U.S. and India have policies on AI, and students and youth are actually included in that policy. So those are just some of the ways that I think we could absolutely start there and just to the overall U.S.-India relationship, I will say, of course, me being here during this time, we noticed sort of a sore spot in the relationship. But I would say that the U.S. and India have had—we’ve had bumps in the road in the relationship before, and we’ve always survived those bumps in the road. So I expect that we’ll always overcome any differences that we have, because, I mean India being the largest democracy and a very similar strategic partner, I think we will simply overcome any challenges that we have. But those are definitely—but I would say the education piece is absolutely a big recommendation and to anyone who sees this, consider investing in our high school students. It’s definitely important to the partnership.
RS: So along with trade, defense, and everything, we should also keep education on the table when it comes to improving our bilateral relationship.
NR: Absolutely. Education is key.
RS: Thank you so much, Nina for joining us today. We learned a great deal from your research, your insights, and your unique perspective on education, trade, and everything. It’s been an incredibly enriching conversation, and we are glad this episode could happen. We would like to have you back with future conversations.
NR: Yes, absolutely. Never leaving Gateway House, maybe physically. But, yes, I look forward to joining the Gateway House podcast series and an awesome team here again. Thanks, Raveena.
Nina Robinson is a Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) International Affairs Fellow, India.
Raveena Shivashankar is the website and digital media associate at Gateway House.
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