The execution of 26 innocent tourists on 22 April in scenic Pahalgam, Kashmir, will haunt India for several decades, much as the 26/11 terrorist attacks in Mumbai have. The Indian government reacted promptly: the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by Prime Minister Modi, took key diplomatic steps, including the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, and expelled the military personnel who were posted in the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi.
In truth, the cycle of violence, tragedy, anger and helplessness will continue till it is addressed internally – fulfil the election promises made to the Kashmiris of returning to statehood and bringing development and jobs, strengthen the human intelligence on the ground and take politically robust decisions of further involving local political leaders and make them serious stakeholders.
It was just in January this year that Home Minister Amit Shah claimed that terror incidents in Kashmir had plummeted by 70% after the 2019 abrogation of Article 370, and that the “seeds of separatism” have been removed[1]. In early 2023, the Centre had told the Supreme Court of India that normalcy had been restored in Jammu and Kashmir which had “led to unprecedented era of peace, prosperity.”[2]
While tourism has blossomed in Kashmir, with 23.6 million visitors in 2024 adding 8% to the state GDP, there has been discontent among Kashmiri youth. The special status of Article 370 and 35A provided special quotas in educational institutions and jobs, especially for Kashmiri Muslim youth, plus benefits related to employment and scholarships.
Security-wise, there has been a lacuna. For the last three years, the Indian Army has been distracted, readjusting its troops from the Western border to the North to the military standoff with China. In that time, terrorist activities in the Anantnag sector of Jammu increased, and the Army lost soldiers while carrying out counterterrorism operations in Kashmir.
The signs of trouble have been visible since ‘Operation Garol’ in September 2023. The Indian Army, along with the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Police, began busting the terror network of a local operative of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) Mohammad Uzair Khan in South Kashmir’s Kishtwar Range to internal reports by the Intelligence Bureau (IB), over 100 terrorists from outfits like the LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Hizbul Mujahideen as well as Al Badr, had infiltrated into South Kashmir since that year. The Army closed ‘Op Garol’ in seven days after neutralising Khan and his associates with the use of high-tech drones and Carl Gustaf rifles; but south Kashmir continued to remain tense.
At least 10 key handlers associated with militant outfits such as LeT, JeM, and HM feature prominently on the security forces’ most-wanted list. Among them is Saifullah Sajid Jutt, an LeT and People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) handler based in Pakistan. Intelligence reports also suggested that South Kashmir was hosting the largest number of active militants, which includes districts like Anantnag, Pulwama, Shopian, and Kulgam that continue to be hotbeds of militancy.
The question is, why wasn’t the government prepared for an incident like Pahalgam? At the Supreme Court’s directive, New Delhi held Assembly Elections in Kashmir in September 2024, with a promise to restore statehood – a demand that has also been made repeatedly by Ladakh, which -was bifurcated from Jammu & Kashmir while abrogating Article 370 and become a Union Territories.
The distraction caused by redeploying troops to the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border with China, enabled the terrorists to become active in the Pir Panjal region of Jammu. Infiltration began to swell in that region in 2022.
Last year, say Army sources, Pakistan-based LeT had pushed in 50-60 terrorists from the Jammu side even as a unit of the Rashtriya Rifles was pushed to Ladakh. The terrorists took advantage and began large-scale infiltration of Pakistan-backed terrorists into India. The Indian Army expanded its presence in the Jammu region, particularly in the upper reaches of the Pir Panjal range, to enhance security and stability and conduct search and destroy missions. Yet the one thing necessary was lacking: human intelligence. This usually came from local religious leaders like Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, who are popular amongst the masses in the Kashmir Valley. With the Hurriyat effectively eliminated post 370, Delhi does not receive the required inputs. The J&K Police has for a while been asked to not engage with the locals, say sources.
Three of the four terrorists who opened fire with their American M4 Carbine rifles on the tourists in Pahalgam had crossed over from Pakistan with the help of disaffected local Kashmiri youth. It took almost one hour for the police and the paramilitary troops to reach the spot, even as a manhunt for the attackers was launched.
The timing of the attack was significant: during the ongoing, high-profile visit of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to India, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s crucial visit to Jeddah to attend the India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council meeting.
It’s a pattern that the Indian state seemed to have forgotten – every time a high official visited from the U.S., an attack in Kashmir was almost a certainty. For instance, in March 2000, during the high-profile visit of U.S. President Bill Clinton to India, a group of men purportedly posing as Army men rode into the Sikh-dominated village of Chittisingpora located in South Kashmir’s Anantnag district, rounded up the men and boys of the village and shot at them at point-blank range.
As expected, Islamabad has denied any involvement in the Pahalgam attack[3]. Nevertheless, ties between the two countries are now held together by a thread. The overall diplomatic staff strength has been reduced since 2019, from over 120 then to 30 in both missions due to continuous retaliatory actions.
Since 2019, bilateral trade with Pakistan has been suspended. India has denied Pakistan the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trade status since 2019 after the deadly attack in Pulwama, Kashmir, in which Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) 40 personnel were killed, and has imposed 200% duties on Pakistani goods. This, too, is now in abeyance, as India announced the total shutdown of the Integrated Check Post (ICP) at the key Attari-Wagah border, effectively severing people-to-people and commercial linkages.
Informal trade between India and Pakistan, however, will simply shift to the Dubai route, which carries Indian exports of $4 billion to Pakistan, largely jewellery, textiles, and electronics. Since 2019, Pakistan has been focusing on import substitution, reducing import dependence on India and boosting export competitiveness. Imports in the textile sector, including raw cotton and other products from India such as dry fruits, rubber tyres, power-generating machinery and Completely Built Up (CBU) motor cars, have been rapidly declining[4].
It seemed both sides were trying to mend bilateral ties last October when External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar visited host Islamabad for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting. That moment has passed. The government is expected to inflict more punitive measures on Pakistan.
The attacks will be a significant blow for tourism in Kashmir. The industry is the mainstay for people, and is the backbone of the economy struggling to revive after decades of conflict. In 2024, Kashmir hosted 23.6 million tourists, up from 15 million in 2020, and now the sector accounts for 8 % of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP)[5].
There’s a real fear of a return of militancy, perhaps even more deadly than before. The immediate task for New Delhi is to set its own house in order. The Pahalgam incident was a failure of intelligence and of the carefully developed counterterrorism grid.
A week before that attack, Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Asif Munir went on an anti-India tirade in Islamabad, calling Kashmir the “jugular vein” of his country. That should have been a red flag for the Centre to activate the security web in the Kashmir valley, knowing it was peak tourist season.
It is critical to involve local stakeholders as a primary source of human intelligence, especially given the mountainous and often inaccessible geography of the region. Locals have previously been Delhi’s eyes and ears on the ground; it led to the favourable conditions for abrogating Article 370. The same resources can be involved again, to bring Kashmir back into the national fold.
Nayanima Basu is a journalist who writes on issues of foreign policy and is the author of “The Fall of Kabul: Despatches from Chaos”.
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References:
[1] “After Abrogation of Article 370, Terror Cases in Kashmir down by over 70%, Says Amit Shah.” The Indian Express, January 3, 2025. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/after-abrogation-of-article-370-terror-cases-in-kashmir-down-by-over-70-says-amit-shah-9757256/.
[2] “Abrogation of Article 370 Led to Unprecedented Era of Peace, Prosperity in Jammu and Kashmir, Centre Tells Supreme Court.” The Hindu, July 10, 2023. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/abrogation-of-article-370-led-to-unprecedented-era-of-peace-prosperity-in-jammu-and-kashmir-centre-tells-supreme-court/article67065176.ece.
[3] “In the briefing to the CCS, the cross-border linkages of the terrorist attack were brought out. It was noted that this attack came in the wake of the successful holding of elections in the Union Territory and its steady progress towards economic growth and development,” said Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri while reading out the CCS decisions to the media; “Statement by Foreign Secretary on the Decision of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS).” Ministry of External Affairs, April 23, 2025. https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/39442.
India, under Prime Minister Modi’s rule since 2014, has been able to coax the US to “de-hyphenate” its relations with both the countries. In the wake of the Article 370 abrogation, Pakistan, then under former Prime Minister Imran Khan, downgraded diplomatic ties by expelling then High Commissioner of India to Islamabad Ajay Bisaria.
[4] Khanna, Ambika. “Devising an Indian Policy on Sanctions for Pakistan.” Gateway House, April 30, 2020. https://www.gatewayhouse.in/indian-policy-sanctions-pakistan/.
[5] “Tourist Figures.” Department of Tourism, Jammu and Kashmir. Accessed April 24, 2025. https://jandktourism.jk.gov.in/TouristFigure.html.