India-U.S.: not yet a priority partner

While Prime Minister Modi completes another visit to Washington, D.C., there have been two different reactions from the media and India-U.S. commentators. The first focuses on Modi’s ability to charm the media and build a friendship with President Obama as well as Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. Congress. Indeed, the clamour to “escort” Modi to the Hall of the House of U.S. Representatives for his address last week seems to have been the most bipartisan U.S. activity of 2016.

The opposite view is that Modi and Obama wasted valuable time by not moving forward more aggressively on issues of business investment, climate change, and social development: they focused, instead, on secondary issues like defence ties and cybersecurity. With Obama’s presidency ending in six months, Modi lost valuable time in achieving actionable goals with the United States instead of having to start all over again under a new president.

From the media’s viewpoint, we saw a rehashing of the same headlines of 2000 and 2006: headlines that follow the general theme of the “special relationship” developing between the United States and India or about ties being “the best in decades”. What is left out is that these relations have often dipped in the first term of a new U.S. president.

India only becomes, by and large, a focus of U.S. presidents during their second term. This is not because they view India as a second-rate or second-tier country—they do not. Yet, for Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and now Obama, a series of factors and priorities pushed India onto their second-term foreign policy agendas. Clinton’s, first seven years were consumed by the U.S. economy, the end of the Cold War, and then the isolation of India on account of its nuclear tests. Ultimately, his groundbreaking visit to India in March 2000 showcased the burgeoning business relationship between the two nations.

George W. Bush’s first term was governed by the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the wars his troops were fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq. India was disappointed by both the lack of attention it received from the Bush administration and its deep reliance on Pakistan to fight the Taliban and al-Qaeda. It was only during his second term that circumstance drove the Bush administration to push for and negotiate the India-United States Civil Nuclear Agreement. This was truly transformational as it positioned India as an ally of the United States and gave India access to materials to produce more nuclear energy with.

Like Bush, President Obama again paid little attention to India during his first term, focusing instead on his country’s economy and ending the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. He further disappointed India in some of the appointments to his foreign policy team. Despite a personal friendship with former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, they and their teams never saw eye to eye, and could not even finish the details of the nuclear deal they were to sign.

The second Obama term, combined with the election of Narendra Modi and his team, has been the opposite. Both men developed a healthy relationship and put in place teams with credibility and a deep understanding of the United States and India. The result was a series of discussions and initiatives between government agencies in both countries, with the most important being their joint collaboration to fight climate change.

Once again, however, the U.S. presidential election threatens to derail the momentum of their relationship. Assuming former secretary of state Hillary Clinton is elected president, there may be some continuity in personnel on the U.S. side. Yet, Clinton will focus on more pressing issues, including the defeat of ISIS, the refugee crisis, Russia and China. India will remain an afterthought, except on climate change, where it is critical for the world that India and the United States continue to make progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Under a Trump presidency, it is unlikely India will be on the radar at all. Trump does not talk about India, but has shared enough of his protectionist and racist views for one to know India is not part of his world view.

So, how does India become a “first term country” for ‘president’ Hillary Clinton? In the short term, it must become a reliable partner for the United States on matters of common interest, the most pressing of which is climate change. For the United States, progress by India—in building capacity in wind, solar, and nuclear energy will be important, both diplomatically and commercially. India and the United States can work hand in hand on climate change issues, locally, bilaterally, and multi-laterally. Climate change is a first term issue that will align with the coming president’s agenda and build relations with her new team.

The other first term opportunity for India is for to maintain its position as a “bright spot” in U.S. foreign policy. Continued foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Indian economy by U.S. investors and companies is the most public measure of this, as is continued movement by the Indian government to become more investor and business friendly.

This, by definition, creates opportunities for collaboration between the two governments, including discussions around bilateral investment treaties, Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP participation, and R&D collaboration. There are many other ways to deepen the relationship, but, in the short term, the Indian government must ensure consistency in its discussions with the Obama administration and Clinton campaign, and focus intensely on the key issues that must be transitioned to the new president.

Bipartisan support for India in the United States runs really deep. Republicans and Democrats alike see India as a mirror of U.S. society and a strategic partner in many ways. And the Indian American diaspora is deeply integrated into all facets of American society. These are advantages that few other countries have. They will continue to drive the two nations together but unless the Modi government plans properly, India will again be a priority for the U.S. president— albeit his or her second term in office.

Nish Acharya is a Visiting Fellow, India-U.S. Studies at Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.

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