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26 June 2025, Gateway House

Drones are the game-changer

Warfare is changing its character, and drones are playing a big role in it. Technology that was first extensively used in the Vietnam war is a current conflict staple. With the increasing use of artificial intelligence, drones are becoming more powerful and useful.

Adjunct Distinguished Fellow, National Security and China Studies

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The two major on-going wars in the world have in common a new dimension of warfare: the extensive use of drones.

On 1 June 2025, Ukraine launched Operation Spider Web[1] using 117 drones, incapacitating 41 Russian air force aircraft. Ukraine had planned this attack for more than a year and launched it stealthily from inside Russian territory. Ukrainian personnel moved small drones and explosives within Russia. Thereafter, Ukraine launched the drone attack remotely. It took Russia by surprise, and it sustained substantial losses, estimated at $7 billion. In retaliation, on 6 June, Russia launched 407 drones and 44 missiles targeting Ukraine. Almost 200 drones and 30 missiles were shot down by the Ukrainian forces, killing 50 Ukrainians.

Operation Rising Sun, under which Israel launched an attack on Iran also saw the employment of drones in a manner similar to Operation Spider Web. Drones were smuggled inside Iran for an operation that was in the planning for more than three years. Several targets were identified, and the armed drones were positioned close to the targets. At the designated time, they were activated against Iran’s air defences, military leadership and nuclear scientists. In retaliation, Iran launched a number of Shahed drones[2] against Israel. These, made from foam and wood, are cheap, and a few of them got through the Israeli air defences, causing damage.

In Operation Sindoor too, both India and Pakistan used drones. India’s strikes were delivered in waves, i.e. the first few sorties employed decoy drones and electronic warfare payloads[3] to overwhelm the Pakistani radar spectrum and elicit a response from the surface-to-air missile batteries. Later, kamikaze drones and armed Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles (UAVs) were employed with due guidance from other drones. Quadcopters and micro-UAVs played an important role in intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance. In the future, India may face a greater number of drone attacks on a narrower frontage, making defences against them more difficult.

Warfare is changing its character, and drones are playing a big role in it.

Why have drones suddenly gained prominence in warfare? First, they cost much less than fighters and other[4] aircraft. The more established drones such as the Reaper 9 (MQ-9 ) cost a fifth of modern aircraft. Smaller drones can cost anything from up to 1/110th to 1/1000th the price of a fighter aircraft. Second is pilot safety. It takes many years and a lot of money to train a pilot. If a pilot is lost it is very difficult to replace him/her. However, if a drone or an aircraft is lost it can be procured in a short period of time. Three, the loitering time (endurance or flight time) of the drones is increasing day by day. It is 27 to 34 hours for the Reaper and Global Hawk class, whereas the solar powered Zephyr can fly for months.[5] It is impossible to keep an aircraft flying for such a long duration. Four, drones can carry a variety of payloads like guns and equipment for electronic, psychological warfare and surveillance. Five, they are quieter. Unlike the aircraft which reveals itself with its thunderous noise, drones can do their work with less noise. Six, drones reduce the number of soldiers in the field and thus minimise loss of human life.

With the induction of Artificial Intelligence (AI), drones are becoming even more powerful and useful. AI enables drones[6] for target tracking and identification, autonomous navigation, resilience against jamming, employability in swarms and decision making.

Drones are used in both offensive and defensive operations and loitering munition was employed in Operation Sindoor. They are also known as kamikaze drones. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has ordered up a million kamikaze drones[7] from its munitions factories in December 2024, to be delivered by 2026. Increasingly, drones are used in swarms. A single drone can be shot down by anti-aircraft weapons, but if several drones forming a swarm are launched, it overwhelms the adversary’s air defence system. Defeating a swarm of drones will typically need a combination of kinetic and soft kill[8] solutions. Swarm technology also enables force packaging[9] where a swarm of missiles can be armed with a combination of missiles, bombs, electronic warfare and surveillance equipment and communication suites for a flexible, plug-and-play model.

Mobile launchers[10] with drones mounted on trucks have changed the usage of drones on a battlefield due to their increased mobility and difficulty in locating them. The trend is now to launch drones from the air from a mothership[11]. The payloads that the drones can carry are going through a revolutionary phase. Quantum sensors[12] are being mounted on drones that are capable of detecting submarines, overcoming the blind spots. They can also be used in counter terrorism operations to monitor and neutralise terrorists.

The first war which saw the significant use of drones was the Azerbaijan-Armenia war[13] in 2020. The 44-day Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, went in favour of the Azeris, in some measure due to the use of drones they bought from Turkey and Israel.

Drones[14] are not entirely new technology, though. They have been imagined even before the Wright brothers flew their first aircraft in 1903. This was due to the invention of the radio transmitter and receiver in 1895 by Guglielmo Marconi. However, the early drones were seen in the first world war as “aerial targets” but were designed to attack the U Boat pens and target Zeppelins of the Germans as aerial torpedoes. These were just good enough to show the proof of flying. The stability of the transmitter and receiver was a limiting factor during this period.

The first military use of the drone was in 1934[15] when the British used their Queen Bee drone for aerial target practice for their anti-aircraft gunners. The U.S. equivalents of the same were the OQ-2 and OQ-3 drones. Subsequently, drones became important when they could fit TV cameras on their nose cones. In 2001, these were fitted with Hellfire missiles[16] that were readily available at that time and became UCAVs (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle). This was the start of the drone warfare, which is becoming more complicated by the day. With the developments in AI, the concept of leaving the decision-making to the UAVs is gaining momentum. The Manned Unmanned Teams or MUM-T[17] are being developed, where manned aircraft accompany the drones.

Ethical questions are being asked with regard to the entire decision-making process being left to artificial intelligence and the creative, emotional human versus the precision machine argument is being revived. With the evolution of the swarm technology, force packaging[18] is becoming more complex.

There are weaknesses in drone technology, of course. In both the Ukraine and Israel attacks, it took over a year for the precision operations to be planned and executed. Another is the necessity of placing the drones closer to their targets for the final attack. The evolution of drones and their role in warfare provides valuable lessons, mostly that technologies need long term investment and patience. Technologies can be dormant for a long time and suddenly become critical to warfare. India can prioritise early identification of these technologies, to get a lead in this area. Developing those technologies will need the integrated involvement of government, academia and industry.

Lt Gen S L Narasimhan is the Adjunct Distinguished Fellow for China and National Security Studies at Gateway House.

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References:

[1]https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/06/ukraines-operation-spiders-web-game-changer-modern-drone-warfare-nato-should-pay-attention

[2]https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-drone-swarms-work-from-irans-shahed-attack-to-ukraines-operation/

[3]https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/autonomous-warfare-in-operation-sindoor/article69633124.ece

[4] Other aircraft include command and control, electronic warfare, surveillance and psychological warfare aircraft.

[5]https://www.airbus.com/en/products-services/defence/uas/zephyr

[6]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/battlefield-ai-revolution-not-here-yet-status-current-russian-and-ukrainian-ai-drone

[7]https://www.realcleardefense.com/2024/12/26/china_places_massive_order_for_

kamikaze_drones_1080664.html

[8] Soft kill involves using software or electronic warfare capabilities to render a drone ineffective.

[9] Force packaging is organising the group of drones with various payloads each performing a different task with redundancies inbuilt.

[10]https://www.twz.com/drone-swarm-launcher-truck-displayed-at-chinas-big-arms-expo

[11]https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/19/chinas-new-drone-mothership-expected-to-launch-for-first-test-flight-within-days

[12https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/04/27/china-tests-drone-mounted-quantum-sensor-that-could-reshape-submarine-detection/

[13]https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/drones-in-the-nagorno-karabakh-war-analyzing-the-data/

[14] The term drones is interchangeably used as Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPVs) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).

[15]https://www.history.com/articles/drones-military-use-history

[16]https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/196333/general-atomics-aeronautical-systems-rq-1-predator/

[17] MUM – T means Manned Unmanned Teams meaning thereby that there will be a human leading the pack of drones.

[18] Force packaging is organising the group of drones with various payloads each performing a different task with redundancies inbuilt.

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