The elections to the House of Commons, held on 28 April, have produced results close to what the pollsters predicted – but not quite. At the time of this writing, projections by Elections Canada gave 169 (of 343) seats to the Liberal Party, denying it a clear majority of 172. The Conservatives are projected to win 144 seats, leaving the 22-person Bloc Québécois (BQ) or other MPs to prop up the new government. The previous minority Liberal government received support from the New Democratic Party (NDP), which has been reduced to only seven seats, thus losing its official status. Its leader lost his seat.
Nevertheless, the overall outcome has been quite dramatic. Just about four months back, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by 24 percentage points, with opinion polls showing the leader of the Conservative Party as the next Prime Minister. Then, Canadian politics took a sudden turn, highlighting the contributions of one woman and two men.
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned last December, raising the banner of revolt against the sitting Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. Her action exposed the deep discontent within the party against his policies. This heralded the intensification of anti-incumbency against Trudeau across the country. Then, on 20 January, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th U.S. president. Soon thereafter, he began berating Canada as a substantial financial burden on the U.S. and urging publicly his desired solution – the incorporation of Canada as ‘the 51st state of the U.S.’. This unleashed a strong wave of Canadian nationalism and anti-Americanism.
It was the Liberals’ masterstroke to summon their reserve card, Mark Carney, who was widely seen, given his impressive credentials, as the saviour. Canadians just gave him the opportunity to be PM in his own right. His rival has even lost his bid to be re-elected as a Member of Parliament.
Compared to the last elections held in 2021, the latest results show that the Liberals and the Conservatives have increased, by 11% and 7.5% respectively, their national vote shares. In contrast, the NDP lost 11.5% of the vote share. Regarding seat share, the Liberals have increased from 43.7% to 49.3%, whereas the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois have barely moved from 41.3% to 42% and 6.3% to 6.4%, respectively. NDP, on the other hand, has gone down from 6.3% to 2%.
Province-wise, the Liberals have done very well in Ontario and Québec, winning most seats, as was expected. These two provinces account for 200 of Canada’s 343 electoral districts. Alberta and Saskatchewan have gone to the Conservative Party. British Columbia is split between the two main parties.
Carney, 60, is undoubtedly the Number 1 winner of this election. An outsider to Canadian politics, he ran an effective campaign in the brief time he had, impressing Canadians across the board with his credentials (Harvard, Oxford, and service as head of the central banks in Canada and the UK) as well as the calm and confidence he projected. He tapped into the reservoir of Canadian patriotism and conveyed a clear message to President Trump that Canada is determined to stay an independent nation and would not be bullied. Declaring victory at the polls, Carney announced that the days of “close integration” between Canada and the U.S. were over. He plans to devise and negotiate a new defence and economic relationship with the U.S.
However, what is also important is that Carney is fully aware that Canada faces serious challenges that go beyond the U.S. relationship. Like all politicians fighting elections, he has made all kinds of promises. Still, observers believe he may focus on delivering on several of them, such as doubling home-building rates, cutting taxes to ease the cost of living, building a national electricity grid, ensuring a massive hike in defence spending, and boosting domestic trade and the auto sector. In other words, he will concentrate on ensuring a better and fairer management of the economy, an area where his predecessor failed dismally.
Carney faces a Herculean task at a time when Canada’s internal divisions have been laid bare, and when he has not succeeded in getting a clear majority in the House of Commons, “I intend to govern for all Canadians,” he said. His ability to rise above divisiveness and consolidate national unity in tackling the U.S. and other weighty problems will determine the degree of success he achieves in his mission.
Will the U.S. president deal with PM Carney differently from how he dealt with Trudeau? Mr Trump may not give up his dream of Canada as a part of the U.S. Still, political realities may compel him to change his course and agree to rebuild the relationship by negotiating new arrangements involving tariffs, immigration, and other contentious issues. Once political signals are given, it should be possible for officials to work out a deal. But much depends on Ottawa taking a strong united line vis-à-vis an assertive Washington. A provinces-led approach would not do.
Under Trudeau, Canadian foreign policy lost a sizable chunk of its shine. The new government has much work to do in rebuilding ties with the UK, EU, Japan, and major Asian players. Carney began this exercise soon after taking over as PM in March 2025. He needs to focus on it without delay because his government will host the next G7 summit in June. This will be a critical meeting of the highest grouping of the world’s most advanced economies. Assuming Mr Trump attends it, both experts and the public at large will watch closely to see if the G7 can still function as a cohesive group, coping with Washington’s ‘America First’ approach.
To New Delhi, Carney’s victory is a welcome development. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already transmitted his congratulations through X. He wrote:
“Congratulations @MarkJCarney on your election as the Prime Minister of Canada and to the Liberal Party on their victory. India and Canada are bound by shared democratic values, a steadfast commitment to the rule of law, and vibrant people-to-people ties. I look forward to working with you to strengthen our partnership and unlock greater opportunities for our people.”
Deterioration in India-Canada relations in recent times came about due to the actions of the previous Canadian Prime Minister and his party’s approach to the question of international terrorism. The party leadership and the new Prime Minister need some introspection and must devise a new realistic approach that is in line with global thinking, especially in the post-Pahalgam period. Once this is done and Ottawa takes appropriate initiatives, India may respond positively.
After all, both countries have solid interests in nurturing and expanding cooperation in diverse domains of diplomacy, defense, trade, technology, education, human resources, culture, innovation, and Diaspora. Indians of all hues in Canada represent 3% of the local population. They would certainly hope that better days return for this multi-dimensional relationship.
An indication to judge if the relationship evolves positively will be this: will PM Carney invite PM Modi as a special guest to the outreach session of the forthcoming G7 Summit? We shall discover the answer soon.
Rajiv Bhatia is the Distinguished Fellow for Foreign Policy Studies, and a former ambassador.
This article was first published in WION.