What the U.S. mid-term polls foretell

Just as this year’s parliamentary elections in India were all about the person, Narendra Modi, and how he projected his vision, the U.S. mid-term elections on November 4 were about how negatively President Barack Obama is perceived by American voters.

All high profile candidates who will contest the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 were heavily involved in this campaign, especially the Clintons. But their participation clearly does not seem to have impacted the outcomes—Democrat losses and a Republican majority in the Senate. It is noteworthy that no Democrats wanted Obama—whose approval ratings have fallen to 42%—to campaign for them.

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Going into the elections, the Republicans held a majority in the House of Representatives. They further consolidated it by gaining 14 seats in a house of 435—and now have a total of 241 seats.

The major shift took place in the Senate. The Democrats lost their majority to the Republicans, who gained seven seats to reach 53, of a total of 100.

Even in the State Houses, the tally of Republican governors grew to 31; only 15 are Democrats. The states will now become even more important in domestic social and economic issues, as partisanship in the Congress worsens gridlock.

The outcome of the election will have several far-reaching implications for American foreign policy. Traditionally, the Senate has played a more influential role in foreign policy than the House of Representatives. But the U.S. president has wide-ranging powers to set his own foreign policy, including on attacking other countries without calling it a war (which requires Congressional approval). A Republican-controlled Senate could further restrict Obama’s actions abroad.

India

Fortunately, the U.S. does not perceive India as a threat, and India usually has bipartisan support in the Congress. On the flipside, this support has been lukewarm, with no party “owning” the relationship. Therefore, the drift in U.S.-India relations is likely to continue, notwithstanding the warmth on display during Prime Minister Modi’s visit in September. Traditional differences on issues like intellectual property rights, especially in pharmaceuticals, and on H1B visas, will persist.

Approximately 25 candidates of Indian origin were running for various positions in the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the State Houses. The high-profile winners are Nikki Haley, the incumbent governor of North Carolina, and Kumar Barve, who was elected to the Maryland State House for a sixth consecutive term. Ami Bera, the only politician of Indian origin in Congress, lost his seat by a narrow margin of 3,000 votes. In the states, the results for the legislatures and other positions were mixed: 11 Indian-origin politicians won, and 14 lost. The high numbers of contestants reflect the growing participation of the Indian diaspora in American politics.

China

Republicans have generally maintained a harder rhetoric towards China, but they have also acted to strengthen the economic relationship. It is therefore unlikely that the U.S. pivot to Asia will get more “teeth”. Countries that have island disputes with China should not expect muscular backing.

Japan

The Democrats and President Obama have been largely supportive of Japan’s reinterpreting of its peace Constitution in order to be able to militarise further. But a Republican Senate’s support of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s constitutional changes could take America even closer to Japan (and to Taiwan).

Russia and Ukraine

American hostility, particularly from the U.S. Congress towards Russia, will intensify. This will have implications for its NATO/EU allies, who might also feel the pressure to harden sanctions against Russia.

Iran

The nuclear talks between the P5+1 and Iran have to be concluded by November 24. Both sides are believed to be close to an agreement, but the U.S. election results could complicate matters. Any deal that is reached will have to include the removal of U.S. sanctions, some of which require Congressional approval. This becomes less likely in a Congress in which both houses are controlled by pro-sanctions Republicans.

Israel

The relationship between the U.S. and Israel reached a new low recently, with some senior White House officials reportedly referring to Israeli leaders in insulting terms. Given the traditional influence that Jewish American organisations have with individual members of Congress, expect a strong push for an upturn in relations.

Middle East/West Asia

Obama’s alleged inaction on Syria is perceived to have allowed the growth of the Islamic State. A Republican-controlled Congress might lead to a greater militarisation in the approach to the Islamic State, Syria, and possibly an even harder stand towards Iran. In the short term, this may degrade the military capacity of the Islamic State, but over time it will further antagonise Arab public opinion.

Looking Ahead: 2016

America is already gearing up for the 2016 presidential elections. Now that the Republican Party has gained control of the Congress, it may be less confrontational on budgetary matters because it will not want to be blamed for further gridlock. No immediate progress is expected on reforms in important areas such as taxation and immigration. But there may be some movement on free trade agreements, which are traditionally favoured by Republicans. However, calls to overturn Obama’s signature health insurance plan will grow louder.

Ambassador Neelam Deo is Co-founder and Director of Gateway House. She has been the Indian Ambassador to Denmark and Ivory Coast with concurrent accreditation to several West African countries.

Dev Lewis is an Outreach Associate at Gateway House. He graduated from Roger Williams University in 2013 with an undergraduate degree in International Relations with specializations in economics and mandarin.

This article was exclusively written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can read more exclusive content here.

For interview requests with the author, or for permission to republish, please contact outreach@gatewayhouse.in.