The Maldives: Awaiting another election

The political crisis in the Maldives continues unabated after the constitutionally mandated run-off elections scheduled for September 28 were shelved by the country’s Supreme Court.

The run-off elections became necessary after the country’s former President, Mohamed Nasheed, won the first round of the elections on 7 September 2013 with 45.45% of the vote, but fell short of the 50% required to assume the presidency.

The run-off election was shelved after Jumhooree Party leader Qasim Ibrahim, who narrowly won the third position with 24.07%, moved the Supreme Court to annul the elections, alleging vote-rigging by the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). The motion is being supported by Abdulla Yameen – former autocratic leader Maumoon Gayoom’s half-brother – who was at second place with 25.35% of the vote.

National and international observers on the ground, as well as the NGO Transparency Maldives, have all declared that the elections were credible, fair, and transparent. After the run-off was cancelled, the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group called on Maldivian authorities to hold the presidential run-off as soon as possible and to meet the November 11 deadline set by the Constitution for the run-off elections to be announced.

The decision of the Supreme Court to shelve the elections is controversial, because one of the four judges to vote in favour was Justice Ali Hameed. Graphic videos of the judge with sex workers in a Colombo hotel were recently leaked to the public. Another video in the same hotel room showed him with a Maldivian businessman, claiming participation in the controversial overthrowing of President Nasheed on 7 February 2012. Nasheed was ousted after a police and military mutiny that he and his supporters have claimed is a coup d’etat. This triggered a national crisis.

A Judicial Service Commission (JSC) investigative subcommittee, as well as the Maldives Bar Association, recommended that the judge be suspended. However, he has not been suspended due to a “lack of evidence.” At the time, Qasim Ibrahim was a member of the JSC and he publicly defended the judge. The JSC has previously been criticised by international legal experts as being heavily politicised and not functioning independently. A former JSC member-turned whistle blower, Aishath Velezinee, has alleged since 2010 that the JSC was being used to protect poorly-qualified and corrupt Gayoom-era judges in an attempt to carry out a “silent coup” against democracy.

The Parliament, in which Nasheed’s MDP controls a simple majority, passed a resolution on september 23 demanding that the Elections Commission proceed with the elections as mandated by the Constitution.

Elections Commissioner Fuad Thaufeeq announced plans on September 26 to ignore the Supreme Court’s injunction and conduct the elections on schedule. However, he was forced to cancel the elections after the police physically intervened and took over the Election Commission following a Supreme Court order to the security forces to prevent a run-off election. The EC has noted that a run-off election is mandated by the Constitution to be held within 21 days of the first round, and the country is now essentially in a legal void.

On 29 September, the MDP National Council passed a resolution claiming victory for Nasheed if run-off elections are not announced before November 11 – when the new President is due to be sworn in. However, it is unclear how the MDP will achieve this objective.

The Maldives Ports Workers Union and the Tourism Employees Association of Maldives have announced intentions to carry out “prolonged strikes” if the elections continue to be delayed.

The Supreme Court is yet to issue a final ruling. While no definite evidence of vote-rigging has so far been made public, if the court does rule in favour of Qasim, it will set the stage for further instability. It is unclear what advantage Qasim Ibrahim has even if fresh elections are ordered – his chances of an electoral victory are slim.

The runner-up in the first round of elections, Abdulla Yameen of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), has publicly reached out to Qasim Ibrahim for an alliance in a second round. However, such an alliance is likely to be shaky at best amid perceived personal animosity between the two candidates. It must be noted that the PPM has approached the court to delay the run-off elections to give it more time to prepare for an election, after their poorly-organised campaign in the first round.

In contrast, the MDP has had a more successful campaign and displayed a consistent ability to gather large crowds at its rallies in the lead-up to the first round of elections. If a second round of elections takes place in the next couple of weeks, the MDP has a good chance of emerging as a clear winner.

Due to the weak public positions of the PPM and the Jumhooree party, it cannot be ruled out that these parties may use their influence over the judiciary and other institutions to pursue the alternative approach of trying to eliminate Nasheed from the race. Leaders of both parties have already issued calls to press criminal charges against Nasheed for detention of a Criminal Court judge, among other things. However, such a move may prove to be a miscalculation: it will be harder for the two parties to gain crucial international support – especially after India, the U.S., and CMAG have all publicly declared the first round of elections to be credible and fair.

But given the tactics employed in recent months, and due to the highly politicised nature of the judiciary, the police, the military, and crucial independent institutions like the JSC, this is a possibility. It remains to be seen if the present crisis can be settled with an election.

Yameen Rasheed is a Malé-based commentator on the politics and society of the Maldives.

This article was exclusively written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can read more exclusive content here.

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